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- #221
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I could easily see a situation where the setup supports significant tornadoes from directly at the warm front like that, all the way down to south MS/AL.Obviously pointing out similarities to historic events is not calling for a verbatim repeat of said historic event (@Fred Gossage )...but that surface pattern, particularly the location of the triple point and warm front as well as the time of year is giving me Tri-State vibes.
Just looking at the 00Z GFS, the jet structure look's to be a split-jet configuration towards the Mississippi River, with a 500mb jet near 90knts. With the surface low position the winds shouldn't be that veered.I could easily see a situation where the setup supports significant tornadoes from directly at the warm front like that, all the way down to south MS/AL.
Yes sir, indeed.GFS is trending cleaner with the warm sector pre-event on Wednesday, and this allows for a LARGE significantly unstable warm sector (south-central IL and southwest IN, southward to the Gulf Coast). The low-level flow is starting to trend more backed and the low-level jet starts ramping up earlier in the afternoon and over a larger area (GFS and NAM both have a long-standing bias of not correctly handling isallobaric responses in relation to the low-level flow, often over-veering the low-level winds and not being strong enough with the sfc-850mb wind fields). This is trending in a very ugly direction...
16 March 1942 featured violent tornadoes from Central IL (Lacon F5) southward to north-central MS (O'Tuckalofa F4).I could easily see a situation where the setup supports significant tornadoes from directly at the warm front like that, all the way down to south MS/AL.
I could easily see a situation where the setup supports significant tornadoes from directly at the warm front like that, all the way down to south MS/AL.
Things could change, but I think we're locking in on a general midday to midnight timeframe for Wednesday.Does it look like a day or night event for Mississippi and Alabama. I cannot even imagine an bad outbreak at night and don't want to.
Fred, I think you are right. Very concerning.View attachment 6816
I think, already, we really have to entertain the idea that this is one of those type of threats...
YesShould we go ahead and get a thread going for this one? I was going to make one yesterday but decided to wait until the SPC had outlined a risk area.
Alright, I've got a thread set up. Not sure if the mods will want to migrate the above discussion to that thread.
Simple yes for nowIs next Wednesday looking worse than what today could bring?