Severe Weather 2021

[MattW]

Well, the CIPS analogs are triggering for next Thursday. Really Wednesday through Friday.

 

[KevinH]

Well, the CIPS analogs are triggering for next Thursday. Really Wednesday through Friday.

I was wondering who was going to mention that next.
Why does it ALWAYS seem to be MS and AL? smh

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

I was wondering who was going to mention that next.
Why does it ALWAYS seem to be MS and AL? smh

This time year. Deep South Dixie states are under gun as we get deeper spring trend go little north .be honest this spring looks bad perhaps to mid May even . Be aware . But Fred and many others warned of this upcoming spring being vilotale perhaps

 

[CSimonds]

Well, the CIPS analogs are triggering for next Thursday. Really Wednesday through Friday.

Looks like the same exact areas and the same CAD Wedge as this week

 

[KevinH]

This time year. Deep South Dixie states are under gun as we get deeper spring trend go little north .be honest this spring looks bad perhaps to mid May even . Be aware . But Fred and many others warned of this upcoming spring being vilotale perhaps

He sure did! We are now seeing exactly what he (and others) were talking about.

We should no longer be surprised by the frequency, intensity or location of the storms this year.

 

[Clancy]

Definitely concerned that some might get complacent and get an unwelcome surprise in an upcoming event. I've heard a few murmurings voicing concern for what April might bring, given what mid-March was able to accomplish yesterday. With regard to May events, the only one that comes to mind (for Georgia, anyway) is what sometimes gets called the "Mother's Day Outbreak" in the state, in May of 2008, and was part of an outbreak sequence, I believe.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Huntsville already calling the next system impressive in their morning discussion.

 

[warneagle]

I was wondering who was going to mention that next.
Why does it ALWAYS seem to be MS and AL? smh

Because this is the peak of the tornado season in the deep south. February through April is the big money period down there in terms of tornado climatology.

 

[Fred Gossage]

Not only do we have systems in the medium range that show, at minimum, some potential for strong to severe storms, but as we also take a step back and look at the background pattern again, The overall large scale placement of everything remains supportive of maintenance of the minimum of an on-again, off-again for a short bit active weather pattern going forward. The large scale background conditions that would support the potential for major, large scale severe weather are still in place, and there is increasing evidence that the MJO may recycle again as we head into April and that the Pacific may begin to feature a more classic La Nina severe weather look, with the transition to a more prominent Pacific jet and the subtropical jet taking a big backseat, as we head toward April. While I cannot say for sure and cannot, by any stretch, make any guarantees... not only do I think at least bouts of active severe weather continue going forward, but I think there is still large-scale major potential for Dixie Alley, and I'm very much not sure that yesterday was the "big day" of the spring for the heart of Dixie Alley, despite there being a High Risk and everything that transpired. Let's keep our heads on a swivel for the next 6-8 weeks or so.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Not only do we have systems in the medium range that show, at minimum, some potential for strong to severe storms, but as we also take a step back and look at the background pattern again, The overall large scale placement of everything remains supportive of maintenance of the minimum of an on-again, off-again for a short bit active weather pattern going forward. The large scale background conditions that would support the potential for major, large scale severe weather are still in place, and there is increasing evidence that the MJO may recycle again as we head into April and that the Pacific may begin to feature a more classic La Nina severe weather look, with the transition to a more prominent Pacific jet and the subtropical jet taking a big backseat, as we head toward April. While I cannot say for sure and cannot, by any stretch, make any guarantees... not only do I think at least bouts of active severe weather continue going forward, but I think there is still large-scale major potential for Dixie Alley, and I'm very much not sure that yesterday was the "big day" of the spring for the heart of Dixie Alley, despite there being a High Risk and everything that transpired. Let's keep our heads on a swivel for the next 6-8 weeks or so.

O I agree 110!percent Fred ... think yesterday was only tip of the iceberg. Buckle up folks

 

[Gail]

Always MS/AL. This is why spring will never be my favorite season. Some absolutely gorgeous days scattered in for sure, but way too many storm systems come as a price attached to them.

 

[KevinH]

Huntsville already calling the next system impressive in their morning discussion.

Now I have to go read!

 

[Brice Wood]

Huntsville already calling the next system impressive in their morning discussion.

Sheesh y’all can’t catch a break for about 2 or 3 weeks without a big severe weather day

 

[andyhb]

Yeah that system towards the latter part of next week after the low latitude troughing left behind by the current system gets kicked out is looking interesting, especially if it lifts north a bit.

 

[KevinH]

Definitely concerned that some might get complacent and get an unwelcome surprise in an upcoming event. I've heard a few murmurings voicing concern for what April might bring, given what mid-March was able to accomplish yesterday. With regard to May events, the only one that comes to mind (for Georgia, anyway) is what sometimes gets called the "Mother's Day Outbreak" in the state, in May of 2008, and was part of an outbreak sequence, I believe.

Most people who live in the South know how the weather CAN be.

I also think a lot of people in the South are already complacent because they have been under numerous threats of severe weather in the past WITHOUT being directly affected by it. People (here) do not realize that just because they did not take a direct hit all of the other times severe weather occurred, does not mean they were out of danger and will not be in danger for future events. They lull themselves into a false sense of security that gets people killed.

In my personal experience, despite what METs say over and over again, no matter how much "warning" people receive, most people are not going to take the weather seriously unless and until it affects them directly. In general, sometimes people do not "learn their lesson" unless and until the consequences of their actions (or inactions) are SEVERE (no pun intended). The same can be said for a lot of people in the south in regards to severe weather.

We can share, we can post, we can help people prepare (as we should), but unfortunately, I think a lot of (not all) people are just going to have to learn the hard way

You can bring a horse to water but you cannot make the horse drink.

 

[John Jaye]

It seems as though people here in Jasper, AL took yesterday quite seriously. Restaurants and businesses began closing around 1 p.m. Schools were already on Virtual Wednesday so that wasn't as issue. Our area has been in the thick of it enough that most folks here do pay attention. Doesn't hurt that there are a lot of AL Power employees that live in the area. I live on a major road, and traffic was very light yesterday afternoon and evening even though we, in Jasper, were never in a warned area.

 

[KevinH]

It seems as though people here in Jasper, AL took yesterday quite seriously. Restaurants and businesses began closing around 1 p.m. Schools were already on Virtual Wednesday so that wasn't as issue. Our area has been in the thick of it enough that most folks here do pay attention. Doesn't hurt that there are a lot of AL Power employees that live in the area. I live on a major road, and traffic was very light yesterday afternoon and evening even though we, in Jasper, were never in a warned area.

I am willing to bet that people in Jasper take it more seriously because of where they live within Dixie Alley. In other words, more people have “learned their lesson” over the years than say, people in.... I don’t know... say... GEORGIA, LOL!

They DO better because they KNOW better. They KNOW better because they are more likely to have EXPERIENCED what happens when you have a casual attitude about Mother Nature.

I have a friend who lives in Cullman, and I am almost incessantly telling her that she lives in the “Oklahoma of the South”

 

[Weatherphreak]

I think most places close early these days when there is nasty weather due to the liability risk. I could be wrong though. Blame Alex Shannnahaha

 

[Clancy]

CIPS is continuing to show the possibility for severe weather towards the latter half of next week (D6-7 on the analogs page).

 

[David in SW Blount]

Most people who live in the South know how the weather CAN be.

I also think a lot of people in the South are already complacent because they have been under numerous threats of severe weather in the past WITHOUT being directly affected by it. People (here) do not realize that just because they did not take a direct hit all of the other times severe weather occurred, does not mean they were out of danger and will not be in danger for future events. They lull themselves into a false sense of security that gets people killed.

In my personal experience, despite what METs say over and over again, no matter how much "warning" people receive, most people are not going to take the weather seriously unless and until it affects them directly. In general, sometimes people do not "learn their lesson" unless and until the consequences of their actions (or inactions) are SEVERE (no pun intended). The same can be said for a lot of people in the south in regards to severe weather.

We can share, we can post, we can help people prepare (as we should), but unfortunately, I think a lot of (not all) people are just going to have to learn the hard way

You can bring a horse to water but you cannot make the horse drink.

Many people are simply bad at risk assessment, although the chance of ever being affected directly by a tornado is so low, I can understand it to some degree. Nevertheless, it's not difficult to make simple preparations like getting a place to shelter ready just in case. I understand, too, how disruptive kids being out of school can be. Even if the fireworks on Wednesday were not as dramatic as many expected, though, I would not have wanted my child in a school.