Severe Weather 2021 (6 Viewers)

andyhb

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Wednesday does look pretty intriguing on the Euro/NAM as of 12z, certainly plenty of moisture over a pretty wide warm sector. Extent/magnitude of the threat will be dictated by the amplitude of the wave. As for the weekend, seems again that moisture will be plentiful, question being exact evolution of the large upper trough amplifying in the west and its accompanying shortwave disturbances.

In any case, having good moisture for both days in itself is likely to yield some sort of notable severe potential, seems to be kind of a theme of this winter so far...
 
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All this talk about the possible upcoming severe weather threat for the New Year is reminding me of the three day outbreak back in late 2010 going into 2011 during the New Year's holiday. We all know how that was the beginning of a wild weather year going in to 2011. I will be watching this new threat very closely.
 

JPWX

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All this talk about the possible upcoming severe weather threat for the New Year is reminding me of the three day outbreak back in late 2010 going into 2011 during the New Year's holiday. We all know how that was the beginning of a wild weather year going in to 2011. I will be watching this new threat very closely.
That outbreak has been on my mind a lot lately.
 
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That outbreak has been on my mind a lot lately.

Same here. When I first started seeing some of the outlooks and comments from others about this week's threat, that outbreak was the first thing that came into mind. I remember it quite well and I remember it being just as warm as it was back then as it is now. The lead-up to both events seems so eerily similar to me. This is definitely worth watching to see how it will pan out.
 

Clancy

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D3 for Wednesday. SPC mentions significant uncertainty but that the potential for more substantial severe weather may exist.
Given the uncertainties mentioned above, a slight risk seems
justified at this time. However, if model guidance trends toward a
stronger system or if more widespread warm sector convection appears
likely, an enhanced risk may be needed in later outlooks.
 

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That Saturday with only a one. Bit say conservative lol. Quite confident that number goes up

Well two things of note...

1.) That graphic is for tornadoes specifically, not severe weather overall. Even mentioning a tornado threat this far out is noteworthy.

2.) BMX's CWA is not necessarily colocated with the area of greatest apparent threat as things stand right now.
 

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