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Severe Weather 2021

I'm sure this is a mistake but it looks like the Euro says we might have storms initiate here in my area before it fires up in the Mid South.

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus-2.png

I cant get the hodo to upload, weird.
 
I am seeing TOR soundings on several models for this afternoon in the Birmingham area between 4 and 7pm. I am locked in on Wednesday just like everyone else, but I sure hope we haven't looked past today. All of our local guys are downplaying the tornado threat.
 
Got a strengthening line moving through here with thunder on the increase but luckily not showing any signs of trouble just yet... the day's still young though
 
Equus said:
Got a strengthening line moving through here with thunder on the increase but luckily not showing any signs of trouble just yet... the day's still young though
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The storm just south of Oakman is showing the slightest hint of wanting to rotate.
 
Jefferson be on alert, this is actually continuing to tighten a bit. Could see a surprise here in a bit if that continues.
 
Equus said:
Jefferson be on alert, this is actually continuing to tighten a bit. Could see a surprise here in a bit if that continues.
Click to expand...

Yeah I've been watching it. It was starting to get going a bit but on the latest scan it broadened back out. Hoping that's as close as we get.
 
Yeah luckily it's broadened out a lot, still could spin something up but marginal risk is still probably a good call given poor instability. Wind profile isn't half bad if we get a good sustained cell though.

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2,000th post apparently, wooo
 
It falls between the two event threads, but there's been a hail-driven Enhanced upgrade for portions of the Plains. A fairly large 5% tornado zone is outlooked as well, but SPC's discussion sounds like they expect mainly nocturnal storms. It does extend eastward across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, which could be the initial round that continues into Wednesday.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
It falls between the two event threads, but there's been a hail-driven Enhanced upgrade for portions of the Plains. A fairly large 5% tornado zone is outlooked as well, but SPC's discussion sounds like they expect mainly nocturnal storms. It does extend eastward across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, which could be the initial round that continues into Wednesday.
Click to expand...
1615914207845.gif
 
GFS shows a highly progressive pattern with several troughs and shortwaves only a few days apart for the rest of March, but I'd assume moisture return is going to be the limiting factor. Long range shows some interesting systems but nothing is really set in stone until it gets much closer.

Ok now it's sleep time, can't resist tracking stuff long after I should
 
Equus said:
GFS shows a highly progressive pattern with several troughs and shortwaves only a few days apart for the rest of March, but I'd assume moisture return is going to be the limiting factor. Long range shows some interesting systems but nothing is really set in stone until it gets much closer.

Ok now it's sleep time, can't resist tracking stuff long after I should
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Agree. . Pattern hold lots of potential for sure... going be a active spring
 
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