Severe Weather 2021

[warneagle]

Latest GFS run is a bit faster with the system the week after next but still looks pretty potent. And yeah, next Wednesday could be a problem...

 

[warneagle]

Do we want to get a thread started for the Plains threat today/tomorrow?

 

[StormStalker]

Do we want to get a thread started for the Plains threat today/tomorrow?

You can go ahead and start one up.

 

[KevinH]

Do we want to get a thread started for the Plains threat today/tomorrow?

Next Wednesday/Thursday will probably need a thread as well LOL

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Next Wednesday/Thursday will probably need a thread as well LOL

Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


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[KevinH]

Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


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I had not realized both notable days of the Super Outbreaks occurred on a Wednesday until just now. Interesting.

Hopefully history will not repeat itself.

 

[MichelleH]

I had not realized both notable days of the Super Outbreaks occurred on a Wednesday until just now. Interesting.

Hopefully history will not repeat itself.

April 8, 1998 was on a Wednesday as well.

 

[Equus]

BMX is starting to up the ante on the latest AFD, and confidence has been bumped to 2 on the HWO already. Definitely starting to trend toward being an interesting day.

 

[Clancy]

FFC's afternoon AFD mentions possibility for strong/severe storms for the Wed/Thurs system as well.

 

[Weatherphreak]

Brad Travis going first Alert for the Wednesday storm as well.

Super Tuesday 2008 was mainly Wednesday for the Alabama tornadoes that hit Oak Grove and Rosalie

 

[SilentShadow87]

Tomorrow is the 31 year anniversary of the Hesston/Goessel outbreak, and while the two main tornadoes definitely were intense, I'm not sure I agree with the F5 rating for them. The Hesston tornado did sweep away a fair number of buildings but they were mostly small houses that weren't very well-built. The vehicle damage was pretty impressive, but other tornadoes like the Chickasha, OK and Chapman, KS ones have done more intense vehicle damage and not been rated F5/EF5. It was borderline, but I probably would have rated Hesston as a high-end F4.

Goessel seems to have been rated F5 entirely on the cycloidal ground scouring, which was debunked as a method of measuring a tornado's wind speed, and honestly none of the other damage looks to be above low-end F4 intensity imo.

 

[akt1985]

If Wednesday winds up being a red letter day for severe weather, we might refer to this event as the St. Patrick’s Day Tornado Outbreak.

 

[Austin Dawg]

April 8, 1998 was on a Wednesday as well.

I remeber watching that supercell after it dropped hail and high winds in Starkville, MS. It gave my wife her first chance to see a great view of what a super cell, rotating, UFO thunderstorm looked like. If it had dropped a tornado it would have went right down the middle of our place.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

If Wednesday winds up being a red letter day for severe weather, we might refer to this event as the St. Patrick’s Day Tornado Outbreak.

"Why is the sky turning green?" "Oh, don't worry it's St. Patrick's Day. Must be the leprechauns at it again."

 

[MikeAthensAl]

Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


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Interesting thing in 74 Huntsville had storms and a tornado (F3) on the Monday before the Wednesday storms. This Monday we are forecast to have storms.

 

[Timhsv]

Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter

This aggregate parameter is the sum of 33 individual weighted parameters, ranging from mandatory pressure level winds, temperature and moisture, to CAPE and vertical shear. Typical ranges of values were established for each parameter in association with significant tornado (EF2+) events, and a numerical weight of 0-3 was assigned to each parameter. If all parameters are consistent with historical EF2+ tornado events, the CWASP total will reach a maximum value of 99. The majority of EF2+ tornadoes have occurred with CWASP values above about 70.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

"Why is the sky turning green?" "Oh, don't worry it's St. Patrick's Day. Must be the leprechauns at it again."

I figured it would be from the power flashes....

 

[MichelleH]

Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter

This aggregate parameter is the sum of 33 individual weighted parameters, ranging from mandatory pressure level winds, temperature and moisture, to CAPE and vertical shear. Typical ranges of values were established for each parameter in association with significant tornado (EF2+) events, and a numerical weight of 0-3 was assigned to each parameter. If all parameters are consistent with historical EF2+ tornado events, the CWASP total will reach a maximum value of 99. The majority of EF2+ tornadoes have occurred with CWASP values above about 70.

View attachment 6788

Well that's not good!

 

[Keldeo]

 

[andyhb]

This warm sector at 18z Wednesday from the 00z GFS, good gracious almighty.