Severe Weather 2021

[warneagle]

Yeah the GFS is picking up on next Tuesday and Wednesday. Still a long way out and a lot of uncertainty (enough that the aforementioned forecaster didn't deem it worthy of a 15% yet).

 

[warneagle]

A tornado watch is up in Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Not sure if it really merits a thread.

 

[Equus]

Some pretty decent rotating storms and impressive low wall clouds thus far but seems to be a fairly localized event

 

[Weatherphreak]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The whole thing looks like one big tornado, lol.

 

[warneagle]

The GFS is looking more active toward the end of the month, with a relatively strong low pressure system in the 23-25 March time frame. Still way off in 300+ hour fantasy land, but something to maybe keep an eye on.

 

[KevinH]

Sooooo.... I just saw this online from Darin (@darin_deveauWX on Twitter) who made an interesting point. He said that so far, this year is one of the lowest tornado counts in recent history (2005-2020).

That being said, I had a thought (and a response to him): If this spring is *expected* to produce an ABOVE normal tornado count, *AND* we are currently at the LOWEST count through yesterday (for years 2005-2020), how concerned should we about if/when Mother Nature decides to play "catch up" over the next couple of months?



I do remember seeing several people say that March will be quiet (for March), and then things will......... change come April and May. So far that is VERIFYING lol

 

[Malcolm M]

I don't think the notion that nature plays "catch up" has much merit... but I certainly agree that the accuracy of the March outlook gives credence to forecasts for the following months

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

With as upside down the past year has been, I hope we have a quiet spring with little to no storms! I'm sick of chaos for a while.

 

[Timhsv]

CIP's analogs are beginning to become a little more interesting. At DAY 7, it progs a 60% percentile over Central/Southern Mississippi, along with a even 15% tornado probability over Southern Mississippi at DAY 5. Things look to slowly heat up in Dixie Alley. We'll just see how and if it pans out.

 

[Matt Grantham]

We're definitely looking at more of a delay than expected. There's still a long way to go though.

I take that back lol. Things are starting to heat up, more in line with my original thoughts about the 2nd and 3rd week of March.

 

[Fred Gossage]

I take that back lol. Things are starting to heat up, more in line with my original thoughts about the 2nd and 3rd week of March.

Hoping that's not an understatement. It looks like we're finally getting the models to see beyond the split flow and upper-level lows, and it looks nasty... starting with this thing in the middle of next week.

 

[KevinH]

I take that back lol. Things are starting to heat up, more in line with my original thoughts about the 2nd and 3rd week of March.

What did you see (and where) that made you make this comment? lol I saw the CIPS analogs, but what else?

 

[Matt Grantham]

What did you see (and where) that made you make this comment? lol I saw the CIPS analogs, but what else?

After a huge fake out by the models, they have come back in line with those thoughts. We're already entering that active period today through Monday and again on Wednesday.

 

[KevinH]

After a huge fake out by the models, they have come back in line with those thoughts. We're already entering that active period today through Monday and again on Wednesday.

Got it.

 

[Casuarina Head]

Hoping that's not an understatement. It looks like we're finally getting the models to see beyond the split flow and upper-level lows, and it looks nasty... starting with this thing in the middle of next week.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Wow the 12z gfs is loaded with severe weather potential ... couple of them even significant ones

 

[Austin Dawg]

Wow the 12z gfs is loaded with severe weather potential ... couple of them even significant ones

Looks like a busy day tomorrow in the Texas Panhandle region.

 

[Clancy]

The 12Z GEFS ensemble SCP (from College of DuPage) for 00Z Thursday. Most of the ensembles show something going on at that time.

 

[andyhb]

Wednesday looks potentially volatile especially from a thermodynamic standpoint.



That is a large area of favorable parameter space for severe.