andyhb
Member
Not exactly a favorable look for spring severe wx.
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Severe Weather 2021
- Thread starter Fred Gossage
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- severe weather
Not exactly a favorable look for spring severe wx.
thundersnow
Member
So, did models do a complete about-face or what?
All that ominous talk of the upcoming severe weather season... just weeks or even days ago.
All that ominous talk of the upcoming severe weather season... just weeks or even days ago.
andyhb
Member
For early season (which is still on the table), not peak severe season.
thundersnow
Member
Gotcha, thanks... I wasn't sure what timeframe that map conveyed.
You could actually argue that this will lead to an active peak season
Not exactly a favorable look for spring severe wx.
Timhsv
Member
Interesting. How so you think?
- Moderator
- #167
With the potential of what the background dynamics *could* produce in April, I am fine with a yawnfest. I live in a tornado magnet area and they keep getting too close for comfort.
We're definitely looking at more of a delay than expected. There's still a long way to go though.
tennessee storm chaser
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yean, and i am not sure if thats a good thing or a bad thing if that makes any sense.... because i think all hell breaks loose when it does get going... remember, 2011 also started out very slowly.
Bevo
Member
Latest SPC outlook outlines 15% risk areas Day 5, 6, and 7. 
Yikes.
Yikes.
CheeselandSkies
Member
*Sigh* It's Broyles.Latest SPC outlook outlines 15% risk areas Day 5, 6, and 7.
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tennessee storm chaser
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And what’s that go to do with it lol? All these forecasters at SPC are knowledge enough ... they all do good job
KevinH
Member
What about Broyles?
CheeselandSkies
Member
He has a pretty well-known bullish bias for severe and especially tornado potential...you always have to take his outlooks with an extra grain of salt.
Now he *IS* the professional and in fairness, I haven't really looked into this period on the models. It just seems to me that SPC forecasters in general and he in particular are less conservative/more willing to risk busting by "overhyping" a potential event than they were say 10-15 years ago.
Weatherphreak
Member
Dewpoints struggling a little with the storm on the 15th for North Alabama but the storm showing on the 19th would have mid 60s dewpoints up into the Ohio Valley. I'm not very good at reading wind to know if there is good shear or what not. Still a week away so a lot can change obviously.
KevinH
Member
andyhb
Member
Ehhhh, disagree there, especially with the addition of the Marginal/Enhanced risks.
warneagle
Member
Yeah, with the exception of the 45% area on 5/20/19 (which is a case of hindsight being 20/20), they've been cautious if anything over the last few years and have avoided pulling the trigger on days like 4/12/20 that could've easily verified a high risk.
There were the busted high risks in 2017 that drew some criticism, but aside from that year, there's only been one (!) high risk since 2014. There were multiple high risks every year from 2001 to 2014, so the idea that they've become more aggressive recently doesn't hold up; if anything the opposite is true.
MattW
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CheeselandSkies
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Fair enough, perhaps the general dearth of verified higher-end setups in recent years has colored my perception.
