• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 2021

Latest GFS run is a bit faster with the system the week after next but still looks pretty potent. And yeah, next Wednesday could be a problem...
 
KevinH said:
Next Wednesday/Thursday will probably need a thread as well LOL :oops:
Click to expand...

Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GA Stormchaser said:
Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I had not realized both notable days of the Super Outbreaks occurred on a Wednesday until just now. Interesting.

Hopefully history will not repeat itself.
 
FFC's afternoon AFD mentions possibility for strong/severe storms for the Wed/Thurs system as well.
 

Attachments

  • 1615588309448.png
    1615588309448.png
    39.9 KB · Views: 0
Tomorrow is the 31 year anniversary of the Hesston/Goessel outbreak, and while the two main tornadoes definitely were intense, I'm not sure I agree with the F5 rating for them. The Hesston tornado did sweep away a fair number of buildings but they were mostly small houses that weren't very well-built. The vehicle damage was pretty impressive, but other tornadoes like the Chickasha, OK and Chapman, KS ones have done more intense vehicle damage and not been rated F5/EF5. It was borderline, but I probably would have rated Hesston as a high-end F4.

Goessel seems to have been rated F5 entirely on the cycloidal ground scouring, which was debunked as a method of measuring a tornado's wind speed, and honestly none of the other damage looks to be above low-end F4 intensity imo.
 
MichelleH said:
April 8, 1998 was on a Wednesday as well.
Click to expand...
I remeber watching that supercell after it dropped hail and high winds in Starkville, MS. It gave my wife her first chance to see a great view of what a super cell, rotating, UFO thunderstorm looked like. If it had dropped a tornado it would have went right down the middle of our place.
 
GA Stormchaser said:
Something about Wednesdays just make me nervous. My 1st Wed experience happened in 74 in Huntsville. Everyone else knows the 2nd one. Not superstitious or anything like that, just weird vibes (insert Twilight Zone music here).

Thanks to everyone here sharing their insight on this season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Interesting thing in 74 Huntsville had storms and a tornado (F3) on the Monday before the Wednesday storms. This Monday we are forecast to have storms.
 
Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter

This aggregate parameter is the sum of 33 individual weighted parameters, ranging from mandatory pressure level winds, temperature and moisture, to CAPE and vertical shear. Typical ranges of values were established for each parameter in association with significant tornado (EF2+) events, and a numerical weight of 0-3 was assigned to each parameter. If all parameters are consistent with historical EF2+ tornado events, the CWASP total will reach a maximum value of 99. The majority of EF2+ tornadoes have occurred with CWASP values above about 70.

1615602943591.png
 
Timhsv said:
Craven-Wiedenfeld Aggregate Severe Parameter

This aggregate parameter is the sum of 33 individual weighted parameters, ranging from mandatory pressure level winds, temperature and moisture, to CAPE and vertical shear. Typical ranges of values were established for each parameter in association with significant tornado (EF2+) events, and a numerical weight of 0-3 was assigned to each parameter. If all parameters are consistent with historical EF2+ tornado events, the CWASP total will reach a maximum value of 99. The majority of EF2+ tornadoes have occurred with CWASP values above about 70.

View attachment 6788
Click to expand...

Well that's not good!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top