Severe Weather 2020

[tennessee storm chaser]

I wouldn’t sleep on Thursday severe threat for parts of Ozarks to mid south... look for upgrade to a slight at least for day 3

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Tomorrow looks fun for AR into MS.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

gaining ensemble support of a big severe wx event bout 7 days out... especially the western areas of dixie

 

[CheeselandSkies]

gaining ensemble support of a big severe wx event bout 7 days out... especially the western areas of dixie

There might be something to this. CPC has introduced a "severe weather" highlight for a timeframe just beyond the reach of the current SPC Day 4-8, which I've seldom seen them do of late.

Probabilistic Hazards Outlook

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

 

[Bama Ravens]

Who knew it was already MCS season?

 

[Kory]

Who knew it was already MCS season?

My favorite season. Some pretty deep updraft streaks across MS and West AL later today. I suspect we’re gonna see some strong gusty winds and hailers. Tornado threat looks very minimal.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Who knew it was already MCS season?

wouldnt call it just mcs from here on ... just wind profiles lining of for a potential mcs. It could be a pretty beefy one at that.

 

[Kory]

Tomorrow looks problematic from SE MO/W KY/West Central TN. Another case of deep layer westerly flow. Honestly it isn’t far off from last week at first glance.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Tomorrow looks problematic from SE MO/W KY/West Central TN. Another case of deep layer westerly flow. Honestly it isn’t far off from last week at first glance.

That was my first thought also...
I was afraid to really admit it. Everyone one Tennessee still on the edge .

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Models indicating potential big boy severe threat next week late . Need watch this one. Present s great height falls

 

[Kory]

It is also a big cut off yet again that will be kicking out of the west. I’m not sold on any particular solution since it isn’t even fully on the west coast yet.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It is also a big cut off yet again that will be kicking out of the west. I’m not sold on any particular solution since it isn’t even fully on the west coast yet.

oz euro is a eye brow raiser per that run ... spc seems to be hitting on multi day threat in it latest 4 to 8 day

 

[Kory]

Yes, they said pending better model agreement. They’ve been burnt on the last few systems and I can’t disagree with their reluctance to outline a region currently. This looks like a classic system that will continue to shift around. The euro shears a good portion of the trough out but would still likely be a solution of severe weather.

 

[DRob]

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1029 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2020

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southeastern Denton County in north central Texas...
Northeastern Tarrant County in north central Texas...
Southwestern Collin County in north central Texas...
Northwestern Dallas County in north central Texas...

* Until 1115 AM CDT.

* At 1028 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Trophy
Club, moving east at 55 mph. A 53 mph wind gust was reported at
Alliance Airport with this storm.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This includes the following highways... Interstate 35W between mile
markers 60 and 64, and between mile markers 69 and 82.
Interstate 35E between mile markers 437 and 461.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection get inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3287 9734 3317 9723 3318 9666 3287 9670
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 257DEG 48KT 3305 9717

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH




Also another to the west.

 

[Bevo]

What do we think about the projected threat late next week (possibly next Thursday, March 19th)? Looks like a bad time for the DFW Metroplex and upwards into Oklahoma and Kansas. Too early to tell if it'll shake out?

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

What do we think about the projected threat late next week (possibly next Thursday, March 19th)? Looks like a bad time for the DFW Metroplex and upwards into Oklahoma and Kansas. Too early to tell if it'll shake out?

Think it’s legit threat from arklatex to parts south even. Especially western part... worth watching

 

[Bevo]

DFW metro looks to be in the crosshairs on the Euro model Thursday 00z with ArkLaTex in the 06z. With the precip it looks to be a more organized severe storm threat but there's some (still sorta organized) cells that seem to develop ahead.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

DFW metro looks to be in the crosshairs on the Euro model Thursday 00z with ArkLaTex in the 06z. With the precip it looks to be a more organized severe storm threat but there's some (still sorta organized) cells that seem to develop ahead.

Yeah Thursday looks rough for Dallas metro area

 

[Bevo]

With us still being kinda far out, there's some differences in severity between the available models. Euro looks scary compared to GFS. Guess we'll have to wait a couple more days for HRRR and NAM to catch up, but I still think this system bears a close watch either way. The local NWS and weather guys haven't mentioned much yet and probably won't until the Day 4-8 SPC outlook hashes out.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

With us still being kinda far out, there's some differences in severity between the available models. Euro looks scary compared to GFS. Guess we'll have to wait a couple more days for HRRR and NAM to catch up, but I still think this system bears a close watch either way. The local NWS and weather guys haven't mentioned much yet and probably won't until the Day 4-8 SPC outlook hashes out.

think mornings new 4 to 8 will have a highlighted area for severe wx. Thursday Friday