Severe Weather 2020 (9 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .

Equus

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1,473
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Saragossa, AL
NWS Huntsville mentions maybe a couple strong storms Saturday night but BMX is clearly unimpressed at the moment. A case of the better dynamic support staying too far north to raise too many eyebrows.
 

amp1998

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51
Location
Alabama
NWS Huntsville mentions maybe a couple strong storms Saturday night but BMX is clearly unimpressed at the moment. A case of the better dynamic support staying too far north to raise too many eyebrows.
0z model runs are coming in further south with the upper and surface low bringing better dynamic support and lift to support a severe weather risk.
 

Kory

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4,078
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
NWS Huntsville mentions maybe a couple strong storms Saturday night but BMX is clearly unimpressed at the moment. A case of the better dynamic support staying too far north to raise too many eyebrows.
It looks like the main dynamics begin pulling north and west of Alabama by Saturday. Although it may clip the NW corner. But the system will be weakening by then.

My eye is on next Tuesday...
 
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jackson tennessee
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It looks like the main dynamics begin pulling north and west of Alabama by Saturday. Although it may clip the NW corner. But the system will be weakening by then.

My eye is on next Tuesday...
Saturday at least looks like some good hailers West Tennessee and damaging wind threat . But Tuesday has higher ceiling
 

Kory

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4,078
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The usual hype-man Broyles seems kind of subdued on the 4-8 for Tuesday.
From Matt Grantham at BMX.

The suppressed jet stream will affect
the track of a shortwave moving eastward from the Southwest CONUS
on Tuesday. There is quite a difference between models regarding
the evolution of this system due to a split jet stream, but the
trend of ECMWF/UKMET has become quite concerning from a severe
weather standpoint. These models, along with the ECMWF ensemble,
favor strong pressure falls over the Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday as a warm front and 70 degree dewpoints advance inland
across southern MS/AL. If these trends continue, a tornado threat,
perhaps significant, will need to be added to our HWO. For now we
will wait for more confirmation from other models and future model
runs.
 
Messages
425
Location
Madison, WI
From SPC:

On Tuesday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly into
the Mississippi Valley as a cold front advances eastward across the
Gulf Coast States. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of
the cold front. A few marginally severe wind gusts may occur in
areas that heat up ahead of the front. However, uncertainty is
substantial concerning the timing of the shortwave trough and cold
front.
Again, this from Broyles who historically will use any excuse to talk up tornado potential if he can find one, so that's an odd discrepancy.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Wedowee, AL
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The favoritism is more in the EURO/UK camp. The GFS is and probably will continue to trend its way.
 

Kory

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Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
The favoritism is more in the EURO/UK camp. The GFS is and probably will continue to trend its way.
Yeah...like did Broyles even look at the models? Holy cow that was a bad forecast discussion. Zero analysis.

BMX, JAN, and LIX all hit in possibly severe weather (BMX the strongest tornado wording which would be appropriate if looking at the euro and UKMET). They also all talk about discrepancies as the GFS is doing GFS things.
 
Last edited:

darkskys25

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Messages
40
Location
Coker Al
Yeah...like did Broyles even look at the models? Holy cow that was a bad forecast discussion. Zero analysis.

BMX, JAN, and LIX all hit in possibly severe weather (BMX the strongest tornado wording which would be appropriate if looking at the euro and UKMET). They also all talk about discrepancies as the GFS is doing GFS things.
To me this is the best shot we have seen for a tornado threat all year. Of course the last system was an over performer from earlier model forecasts. This has a high celing if youre in the Euro camp. Even when the gfs had the low over central al and the euro on the coast i knew they would shift n. Its 50/50 right now but like Matt said this is one to watch.
 
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Flowery Branch, GA
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KM4JKH
He's a longtime poster on here albeit he has not been very active since the reboot a couple years ago and he's one of BMX's finest. He's very good.
Yep, he's the real deal. I've been on the forum for many many years (primarily as a reader) and I remember folks like Matt, Fred & Brett before they became meteorologists. Now Matt is with NWS, Fred working the wx enterprise in the TV business and Brett is a paid chaser. Anything that crew shares get's my attention. Years ago I was part of a chase convoy that linked up with Brett.....funny thing as we were positioning for a storm we ended up passing another chaser in the same area (guess who...Matt). Small world :)
 

Kory

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4,078
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
To me this is the best shot we have seen for a tornado threat all year. Of course the last system was an over performer from earlier model forecasts. This has a high celing if youre in the Euro camp. Even when the gfs had the low over central al and the euro on the coast i knew they would shift n. Its 50/50 right now but like Matt said this is one to watch.
I’m still uneasy about going all in especially since we have guidance that isn’t a severe wx threat at all. Granted, it’s the less reliable American guidance, but being within 5 days now and have such drastic differences doesn’t lend a whole lot of confidence. Latest 12z UKMET is a bit of a backpedal from last night’s. We’ll see what the Euro shows in a bit.
 

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