Severe Weather 2020 (2 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .

Kory

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One thing we’re going to have to take into account is that a lot of data is collected by the airplanes that traverse the glove. That is then assimilated into the models. We no longer have that (especially over the Pacific) so I suspect we will continue to see larger than normal adjustments over the next couple days.

The euro is faster than previous runs but it didn’t back off for Tuesday. Looks more widespread with the threat to be honest.
 
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One thing we’re going to have to take into account is that a lot of data is collected by the airplanes that traverse the glove. That is then assimilated into the models. We no longer have that (especially over the Pacific) so I suspect we will continue to see larger than normal adjustments over the next couple days.

The euro is faster than previous runs but it didn’t back off for Tuesday. Looks more widespread with the threat to be honest.
Watching a show recently on WeatherBrains that had a couple weather model guru's on. I remember them saying a lot of the new model input is also from Satellite data now. But I can't remember if they specified one model (ECMF vs. GFS vs. xxx ) using this data more than another.
 

Kory

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That’s why I chuckle when I hear people trash the 06z and 18z runs as being garbage. That’s a very antiquated way of viewing our models. They’re constantly taking in new data so they are very much valuable.

Another famous one is “we have to wait for it to be sampled before we know!” No. That’s not how it works. We are constantly assimilating data from across all levels of the atmosphere and the globe.
 
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Taylor Campbell

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Verbatim the EURO was a tornado outbreak. GFS ensemble trend looks to be towards the EURO.

12z EURO 500mb and SFC ensemble mean

EURO 500mb and SFC.PNG

12z GFS SFC mean trend

GFS Sfc trend.gif

12z GFS 500mb mean trend

GFS 500mb trend.gif
 
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FWIW, SPC significantly revised the Day 3 outlook for Saturday (also originally done by Broyles, revision by Thompson) to expand the Slight and Marginal risk areas and include a much more in-depth discussion. Revisions/updates to the Day 3 outlook are exceedingly rare, although not unprecedented.
 

Kory

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FWIW, SPC significantly revised the Day 3 outlook for Saturday (also originally done by Broyles, revision by Thompson) to expand the Slight and Marginal risk areas and include a much more in-depth discussion. Revisions/updates to the Day 3 outlook are exceedingly rare, although not unprecedented.
Yeah that sorry excuse of a Day 3 outlook in 2016 leading up to the 2/23/16 outbreak on the gulf coast was the first time I think it was ever done. Thompson did that one too. He knows garbage when he sees it.
 
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Does anyone have the text of the Day 3 BEFORE it was updated that they could post? Was trying to find it, but not having any luck. Thanks.
 

Kory

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Does anyone have the text of the Day 3 BEFORE it was updated that they could post? Was trying to find it, but not having any luck. Thanks.
Yep, certainly looks like they completely removed it from their site. Isn't in their archives. You click on the 0730z which is the 1am update and it shows 3pm update...weird.
 
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I had to hunt, but here it is.....https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KWNS/2003260613.acus03.html


996
ACUS03 KWNS 260613
SWODY3
SPC AC 260612

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2020

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z


...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

..SUMMARY


THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE IN ILLINOIS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS.

..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY


SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A MOIST AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65 TO 70 F
RANGE, WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG) IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT COULD ALSO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE, EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
MARGINAL.

..MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY


AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. ON SATURDAY A SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES
QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP JUST TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW BY AFTERNOON. THIS POCKET OF
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S F. IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 90 TO 110 KT
MID-LEVEL JET. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES.

..BROYLES.. 03/26/2020
 

Kory

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Looks to me like the Euro & GFS are trending the Low further south for Tue and thus diminishing the severe threat as compared to yesterday. Will be interesting to see if this trends holds.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Today’s 12z euro long range is setting up for a severe weather pattern ... see how April plays out. Buckle up
Yeah, 7-14 day period looks full of potential. Major global models carving out troughs in western US with ample return flow and large amounts of instability.
 
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