Severe Weather 2020

[CheeselandSkies]

think mornings new 4 to 8 will have a highlighted area for severe wx. Thursday Friday

Nope. Models still not lending sufficient confidence in timing/location/intensity of a threat. This is getting old.

 

[Kory]

Nope. Models still not lending sufficient confidence in timing/location/intensity of a threat. This is getting old.

The old saying "cut off upper level low...weatherman's woe."

 

[Bevo]

Hey, I'm down for some (more) rain and less supercells. I much prefer this to when it gets to 90F+ in a couple more months. For now, West Texas looks to be the ones seeing all the action.

 

[TCLwx]

Here’s one you don’t see every day...

 

[Taylor Campbell]

GFS has been hotter than pancakes next week.

 

[Timhsv]

GFS has been hotter than pancakes next week.

Yep. May be a big one

 

[Kory]

I’m not seeing anything that would be “hotter than pancakes”?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Next week continues to look worrisome.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

I’m not seeing anything that would be “hotter than pancakes”?

Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

Next week continues to look worrisome.

Hi Taylor. I admittedly haven't dug "very" deeply into the models, so would you mind posting some of the data you've seen indicating this? I'm not doubting you at all, just interested in seeing what's making you think it's worrisome. Basically, what are the rest of us missing? LOL

 

[MichelleH]

Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.

I think the chances of us getting through April in Dixie Alley without at least one or two tornado events is possible, but highly unlikely.

 

[Jonathan Burleson]

I think the chances of us getting through April in Dixie Alley without at least one or two tornado events is possible but highly unlikely.

I certainly agree with you, Michelle. I'm trying to think of the last time that happened.

 

[Kory]

Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.

Subtropical ridge placement has been unfavorable for systems to eject properly to support a larger/widespread threat East of the MS River. Obviously that doesn’t preclude tornadoes as we saw with Nashville, but that was overall spatially small (but one heck of a supercell!).

We will see how the rest of March progresses. Like I said, for us in Dixie, it looks like a nickel and dime severe wx for the next week or two. Some indications we might have a shot as some isolated strong to severe early next week, but ejection of the shortwave doesn’t look a whole lot favorable. Just something to keep an eye on because March has been very quiet for Alabama...so far.

 

[Bevo]

Bit of positivity in light of these dark times...look what the storms in DFW this evening left behind.

 

[Kory]

Next Tuesday may be a day to keep an eye on. Westerly flow in the upper levels with a subtle shortwave kicking out. I think there could be some severe weather if models hold serve.

 

[Bevo]

SPC introduced a 15% Day 4 risk for a similar area as the past few days.

Spring has barely started and I'm already ready to be off this ride.

 

[amp1998]

This is from HUN, and they are starting to sound more concerned for Tuesday:

Based on the subtle nature of the initiating surface boundary to our
west and orientation of deep-layer shear vectors w.r.t. this
feature, we unfortunately feel that this will be an open warm sector
convective event, with a favorable combination of MLCAPE in the
1000-1500 J/kg range and impressive bulk shear of 65-70 knots
supporting a mixture of supercells and highly organized multicell
clusters as the dominant storm mode. This activity will be capable of
all severe weather hazards, including the potential for a few
slightly more significant damaging wind/large hail events and
tornadoes.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Looking at the latest NAM. If the track of the Low is accurate, I'm inclined to think the severe threat may shift further south into N. Alabama and squarely in Mid TN. Will be interesting to see the CAM's when they get into range. The NAM paints what might be an MCS looking feature that moves thru North TN and I think potentially leaves a boundary that later enhances what looks like more discrete cells.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

If I'm looking at this correctly, the wind profiles at 300mb, 500mb & 850 could be conducive to storms during this same time period .....

 

[amp1998]

If I'm looking at this correctly, the wind profiles at 300mb, 500mb & 850 could be conducive to storms during this same time period .....

Sfc winds will be out of the south or south-southwest with westerly winds aloft. Directional shear will be very favorable for a discrete mode of severe weather, although some soundings show a VBV profile (one potential limiting factor).