Severe Weather 2020 (3 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 6 14.0%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 5 11.6%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
  • Poll closed .

Bevo

Member
Messages
36
Location
Dallas, TX
Hey, I'm down for some (more) rain and less supercells. I much prefer this to when it gets to 90F+ in a couple more months. For now, West Texas looks to be the ones seeing all the action.
 

Jonathan Burleson

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
12
Location
Brilliant, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
I’m not seeing anything that would be “hotter than pancakes”?
Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.
 

Jonathan Burleson

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
12
Location
Brilliant, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Next week continues to look worrisome.
Hi Taylor. I admittedly haven't dug "very" deeply into the models, so would you mind posting some of the data you've seen indicating this? I'm not doubting you at all, just interested in seeing what's making you think it's worrisome. Basically, what are the rest of us missing? LOL
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
337
Location
Hanceville, AL
Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.
I think the chances of us getting through April in Dixie Alley without at least one or two tornado events is possible, but highly unlikely.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,078
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Could it be that the Bermuda High is already setting up and we're just going to skip our Spring tornado season (here locally in MS/AL)? It's only March 19th as of this post, but wow, I can see visions of the days of extreme heat and praying for an MCS to come through to give us some temporary relief. I'm sure we'll get at least one "big threat" at some point before we completely transition into Spring; I just don't know when that'll be.
Subtropical ridge placement has been unfavorable for systems to eject properly to support a larger/widespread threat East of the MS River. Obviously that doesn’t preclude tornadoes as we saw with Nashville, but that was overall spatially small (but one heck of a supercell!).

We will see how the rest of March progresses. Like I said, for us in Dixie, it looks like a nickel and dime severe wx for the next week or two. Some indications we might have a shot as some isolated strong to severe early next week, but ejection of the shortwave doesn’t look a whole lot favorable. Just something to keep an eye on because March has been very quiet for Alabama...so far.
 

Bevo

Member
Messages
36
Location
Dallas, TX
SPC introduced a 15% Day 4 risk for a similar area as the past few days.
Screen Shot 2020-03-20 at 9.10.52.png
Spring has barely started and I'm already ready to be off this ride.
 

amp1998

Member
Messages
51
Location
Alabama
This is from HUN, and they are starting to sound more concerned for Tuesday:

Based on the subtle nature of the initiating surface boundary to our
west and orientation of deep-layer shear vectors w.r.t. this
feature, we unfortunately feel that this will be an open warm sector
convective event, with a favorable combination of MLCAPE in the
1000-1500 J/kg range and impressive bulk shear of 65-70 knots
supporting a mixture of supercells and highly organized multicell
clusters as the dominant storm mode. This activity will be capable of
all severe weather hazards, including the potential for a few
slightly more significant damaging wind/large hail events and
tornadoes.
 
Messages
91
Location
Flowery Branch, GA
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KM4JKH
Looking at the latest NAM. If the track of the Low is accurate, I'm inclined to think the severe threat may shift further south into N. Alabama and squarely in Mid TN. Will be interesting to see the CAM's when they get into range. The NAM paints what might be an MCS looking feature that moves thru North TN and I think potentially leaves a boundary that later enhances what looks like more discrete cells.
1584931832928.png
1584931852298.png

1584931895267.png
 
Messages
91
Location
Flowery Branch, GA
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KM4JKH
If I'm looking at this correctly, the wind profiles at 300mb, 500mb & 850 could be conducive to storms during this same time period .....
 

amp1998

Member
Messages
51
Location
Alabama
If I'm looking at this correctly, the wind profiles at 300mb, 500mb & 850 could be conducive to storms during this same time period .....
Sfc winds will be out of the south or south-southwest with westerly winds aloft. Directional shear will be very favorable for a discrete mode of severe weather, although some soundings show a VBV profile (one potential limiting factor).
 

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