Severe Weather 2020

[TornadoFan]

Nashville tornado path up to 60 miles now.

 

[JayF]

I see nothing to indicate a more favorable pattern. We’re still in high AAM with a northerly shifted pacific jet leading to cutoffs. Earlier this week was the exception to an otherwise unfavorable pattern. It has been unfavorable for a large portion of the last 4-6 weeks.

I will go find the model where I saw the potential for severe weather for Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Mississippi. Obviously it is way to far out to have any reliability in the forecast to know it will even be the same when that time comes but the models did show the potential.

 

[JayF]

I see nothing to indicate a more favorable pattern. We’re still in high AAM with a northerly shifted pacific jet leading to cutoffs. Earlier this week was the exception to an otherwise unfavorable pattern. It has been unfavorable for a large portion of the last 4-6 weeks.

Here is what I am seeing from my post above. The severity of these storms? No way to tell at this time.

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Way out in Voodoo land, but the Euro paints a interesting potential setup around Mar 13-15th for the Southeast.

GFS for the same timeframe

 

[GA Stormchaser]

This mornings outlook from the SPC doesn't paint anything of significance brewing over the next 8 days.

 

[Kory]

This mornings outlook from the SPC doesn't paint anything of significance brewing over the next 8 days.

They might want to take a look at the Euro. WNW flow severe event looks possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.

 

[Equus]

We just had an EF4 in what had been a D2 marginal, so I wouldn't hang my hat on SPC probs too tightly to be honest

 

[GA Stormchaser]

We just had an EF4 in what had been a D2 marginal, so I wouldn't hang my hat on SPC probs too tightly to be honest

They are some of the best, but that event reminds us all that "Weather Prediction is HARD", especially those setups that are not classic.

 

[Kory]

I honestly think they haven’t tested the sirens in Tuscaloosa since January because it’s been stormy on every Wednesday since early feb.

 

[warneagle]

I honestly think they haven’t tested the sirens in Tuscaloosa since January because it’s been stormy on every Wednesday since early feb.

Given the way things go with Wednesdays down there maybe they just ought to move the test to a different day...

 

[GA Stormchaser]

Kory - Is that the

They might want to take a look at the Euro. WNW flow severe event looks possible on Wednesday/Wednesday night.

Not sure when the 12z Euro actually get's posted, but just looked at it for next Wed evening. It sure does look interesting if it pans out. Don't think the GFS is way off the same trends either (though I'm a super novice at the model thing ) Looks like it has a low tracking near the AL/TN & GA/TN border thru the early evening. If that low is just a bit further north (GFS is further north) then I think things get even more interesting.

 

[Kory]

From NWS Birmingham:

Damaging winds will also be a threat as well,
especially if an MCS forms. Tornado threat appears very low at
this time, due to straight hodographs, though the ECMWF does
indicate a small LLJ developing which could increase SRH Wednesday
evening. Will continue to monitor the tornado potential as
northwest flow events are always tricky, but will go ahead and add
a threat of severe hail and damaging winds to the HWO.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I honestly think they haven’t tested the sirens in Tuscaloosa since January because it’s been stormy on every Wednesday since early feb.

Spann destroyed them.

 

[ghost]

The GFS has my area receiving 12" of rain in the next 2 weeks with over 15" in central TN

 

[StormStalker]

I hope we don’t get 11 inches of rain over the next two weeks. I need the current to slow down because I’m getting ready to hit the river soon.

 

[Kory]

There’s a big heavy rain signal for this weekend into next week as a deep long wave trough dives into the west. Depends on now amplified the ridge gets and oriented will determine where that SWerly upper level firehouse sets up. I could see a lot of that falling northwest of Dixie but...this last heavy rain event trended south with time. So, things can still fluctuate.

 

[Bama Ravens]

There’s a big heavy rain signal for this weekend into next week as a deep long wave trough dives into the west. Depends on now amplified the ridge gets and oriented will determine where that SWerly upper level firehouse sets up. I could see a lot of that falling northwest of Dixie but...this last heavy rain event trended south with time. So, things can still fluctuate.

 

[Kory]

GFS is a widespread 6-10 inches next week for a lot of the Southeast. MAKE. IT. STOP.

 

[Kory]

Lol. Just as I said.

 

[NWMSGuy]

There’s a big heavy rain signal for this weekend into next week as a deep long wave trough dives into the west. Depends on now amplified the ridge gets and oriented will determine where that SWerly upper level firehouse sets up. I could see a lot of that falling northwest of Dixie but...this last heavy rain event trended south with time. So, things can still fluctuate.

I'm curious to see where the heaviest amounts set up also. The 12Z from Sunday had some impressive totals for portions of the Mid-south.