Equus
Member
Haha yeah barely rained in Addison after the midday showers. Just some light sprinkles and a breeze.
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one mean looking severe weather threat showing up on gfs and now euro within range... plenty ensemble support... that's a very dangerous trough configuration showing on most models... this threat still little ways out... but the support is scary. shear and plenty cape showing this far out
the gfs has been incredible consistent with the system for 3 or 4 days in row... now the euro is getting in range though its 9 and 10 day look. just now within 240hrs... but whats even little more alarming is the ensemble support its got, and with the weather at a boring state now, im feeling pretty confident this system will be the next weather maker that will be followed and talked about on the weather forums.How far out?
Thanks. Where do you normally go for your ensemble data?the gfs has been incredible consistent with the system for 3 or 4 days in row... now the euro is getting in range though its 9 and 10 day look. just now within 240hrs... but whats even little more alarming is the ensemble support its got, and with the weather at a boring state now, im feeling pretty confident this system will be the next weather maker that will be followed and talked about on the weather forums.
I like the tropical tidbits siteThanks. Where do you normally go for your ensemble data?
Neat site. I didn't know about that one. Appreciate it, and I'll bookmark that puppy.I like the tropical tidbits site
100 percent agree arcc. What’s stunning also is the amount cape it’s pulling north..Tornado outbreak around the 27th if the GFS is correct. That broad bases trough will cause all kinds of problems if it pans out.
This right here. There is a lot of spread in the ensembles from a nonevent to a significant severe wx event. I'm not sold on any particular outcome.I agree there’s potential this period, but there’s a lot of quite outcomes and nothing has caught fire for a guaranteed significant event yet. I see plenty of spread in the ensembles and models.
yeah but there is growing support of a significant event looming in the end month timeframe... as there is slightly over half the ensemble members showing now of a significant severe threatThis right here. There is a lot of spread in the ensembles from a nonevent to a significant severe wx event. I'm not sold on any particular outcome.
agree kory.. just weather boring at the moment lol... but look at the euro today 240, pretty nasty look for the southern plains to begin this potentially active period towards end monthLet it get inside 5 days. I could see this trending away from something significant given the background state of +AAM.
wow, that's interestingRotating storm right on top of Northport, AL right now. Gotta be borderline for a TOR warning.
wow, that's interesting
helicity is a bit low right nowI’m looking directly at a wall cloud.