Severe Weather 2020 (6 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 3 7.1%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 61.9%
  • Average

    Votes: 7 16.7%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 4 9.5%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.8%

  • Total voters
    42
  • This poll will close: .

Taylor Campbell

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PerryW Project Supporter
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752
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Wedowee, AL
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
The storm southeast of Hohenwald, TN has a 74dbz return, half dollar size hail, and 60 mph wind gust, but no frequent lightning. That’s different.
 

Peter Griffin

Member
Messages
21
Location
Newport, NC
The storms that rolled through NC yesterday resulted in a microburst that caused some damage to a school.

 

rolltide_130

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799
Location
Harvest, Alabama
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For whatever it's worth, I think it's worth bringing attention back to this with the fires that have been going on in Australia.

It's an interesting article but the smoke effect really needs to be studied more in detail. This study found it enhanced the effects while the general consensus is smoke played a huge part in the now infamous 45% bust back in May across OK. That's an area of study that needs to be explored more.
 

Peter Griffin

Member
Messages
21
Location
Newport, NC
It's an interesting article but the smoke effect really needs to be studied more in detail. This study found it enhanced the effects while the general consensus is smoke played a huge part in the now infamous 45% bust back in May across OK. That's an area of study that needs to be explored more.
Agreed I am pretty skeptical TBH. It says itself in the article that the models don't take into account things like smoke particles in the air. Even without that in the models all of the major tornado parameters we are aware of were pretty much off the charts leading up to this breakout. That day was going to be historical any way you slice it. I find it hard to believe some smoke had much if anything to do with it.
 

Jonathan Burleson

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Meteorologist
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9
Location
Brilliant, AL
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
Next Tuesday/Wednesday looks like a potential severe wx threat across the Southeast. SPC is already entertaining an idea of introducing a severe wx risk for day 6 on tomorrow’s outlook should trends continue today.
I look forward to seeing the new "Day 6" as it comes out, along with all the 0z model data tonight.
 
Messages
71
Location
Flowery Branch, GA
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SKYWARN® Volunteer
HAM Callsign
KM4JKH
Looks like a big timing difference between the 12z Euro & GFS. Euro is slower with more apparent CAPE for a longer period of time.
Will be interesting to see how the timing trends. The Euro would also increase storm threat in Georgia IMO.

2020-02-01_13-56-06.jpg

e 2020-02-01_13-58-47.jpg
 
Last edited:

Kory

Member
Messages
3,792
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Big question is how far south the front sags south on Tuesday/Tuesday night will determine the northward extent of surface instability. Euro/UKMET is keeping nearly all of Alabama in the warm sector where as the GFS and long range NAM sags it quite far south eliminating the threat for the northern 1/2 to 1/3 of Alabama Wednesday/Wednesday night. Unfortunately, model consistency isn't quite there yet...
 

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