Severe Weather 2020 (9 Viewers)

This severe weather season will be?

  • Much Above Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Above Average

    Votes: 26 60.5%
  • Average

    Votes: 7 16.3%
  • Below Average

    Votes: 4 9.3%
  • Much Below Average

    Votes: 2 4.7%

  • Total voters
    43
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KoD

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The Tennessee River here in South Huntsville is already very high. This may be TVA trying to get ahead of the next system but 5-10 inches will cause major problems over the next week if the river doesn’t drop before then.
I think that's exactly what's going on. I like to drive over the bridge between Madison and Morgan county just to see how high the Tennessee River is. I definitely think flooding will be the big story of next week if trends hold. Someone is going to get a lot of rain.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
I think that's exactly what's going on. I like to drive over the bridge between Madison and Morgan county just to see how high the Tennessee River is. I definitely think flooding will be the big story of next week if trends hold. Someone is going to get a lot of rain.
We've seen significant shifts in the model runs this afternoon/evening that would favor a more substantial severe weather threat.
 

Refela

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Huntsville, Alabama
We've seen significant shifts in the model runs this afternoon/evening that would favor a more substantial severe weather threat.
Kory, what day/days are they saying? I keep hearing about a severe weather possibility, but the mets in Huntsville have only talked about the flooding.
 

Kory

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3,802
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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Kory, what day/days are they saying? I keep hearing about a severe weather possibility, but the mets in Huntsville have only talked about the flooding.
Looks like Wednesday yet again for potential severe weather. Flooding issues will begin Monday as the lead portion of the rain moves in and then were the heavy band gets hung up in AL/MS/TN. That to be determined as well.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Yeah, wasn't expecting the SPC to go all in. I do see one potential that might limit the tornado threat along the boundary...that would be veering surface winds. If we can get convection in the warm sector, mode will likely be supercells with an elevated tornado potential.
 

KoD

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We've seen significant shifts in the model runs this afternoon/evening that would favor a more substantial severe weather threat.
Oh you're right. Looks like the lower level wind fields have amped up quite a bit from a couple days ago and the surface low deepens and tracks further NW. Is the Euro on board with this?
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Oh you're right. Looks like the lower level wind fields have amped up quite a bit from a couple days ago and the surface low deepens and tracks further NW. Is the Euro on board with this?
Yes. Seasonal trend starting with the December 16th event have seen these things have been to trend NW and trend upward. I'd say nearly every event since then has been this way. GFS is woefully awful in the medium range.
 

Bevo

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13
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Dallas, TX
Wow. We went from a thunderstorm-only threat to a slight overnight. It's being touted as mostly a hail/wind event with a "low" tornado threat but if instability kicks up, I wonder if they would upgrade it. Looks to be several rounds today, great...
 

TCLwx

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35
Location
Tuscaloosa, AL
Do we think there will be enough instability to get the Wed/Thu system going? CAPE values are pretty low. Or, is there enough shear that it doesn’t matter?
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Mid level temps are a little warm thus you’re seeing lower CAPE values. But, as we’ve seen over and over again, models have under-forecasted surface temps by 5-8 degrees in many cases even 24-48 hours leading up to it. That’s why you can’t take CAPE at face value.

As I said, I see a limiting factor if surface winds veer and/or we don’t get warm sector convection ahead of the boundary.
 

Richardjacks

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Hoover, Al
I am kind of surpised at the spc going with higher probs this far out with some of the issues mentioned above. If those issues aren't there, sure, that may be correct. Too many questions to be that confident, in my opinion.
 
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jackson tennessee
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just a quick glance at the 12z euro...is this threat seem to be trending bit more nw or I am missing something. been working today haven't had time break things down much for the upcoming threat
 

Bevo

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Messages
13
Location
Dallas, TX
Thanks to a cap and the cloud cover most of the day, the storms fell apart around DFW. Don't even think I heard a single one last night and I went to bed around 11 PM. Sorry for the bust if you were hoping to see something, @Equus !
 

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