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Hurricane Hurricane Laura (1 Viewer)

Taylor Campbell

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This system’s size and lack of wind shear give it the ability to become more intense than models forecast. They already are in great agreement for at least cat 3 and when systems undergo rapid intensification these models tend to not drop the pressures enough. A cat 4 or possibly 5 is not out of the question.
 

Kory

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Category 5 has never happened west of 90 degrees longitude in the Gulf. Climo would argue against it.

Either way, this is an organizing hurricane that had the potential to be destructive.
 

Blountwolf

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Really, really hoping the Euro isn't on to something. Even GFS is too close to Houston for comfort.
1598367619870.png (On a side note, really loving that earth.nullschool.net has model output in it. Really helps visualize the size of the wind field)
 

Blountwolf

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It needs to vertically stack its circulations before any rapid intensification. It’s taking its time doing that...

Interestingly the SHIPS intensity guidance has shown decreasing rapid intensification probabilities.

Cold pool. Not a lot to work with at depth where it is. Further west there's not a ton there to support RI, but plenty for steady strengthening along it's path I'm afraid. Would love to be wrong and this not ramp up, but I do expect we'll have a major.

1598373472656.png
 

Blountwolf

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Wouldn't take much of a shift for this to walk into Houston. I usually tend towards the Euro after lots of years of it being the one that is correct. Is it still left of the guidance?
 

KoD

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I've noticed some convective upticks recently especially in the SW quadrant where Laura has looked a bit bare and had mostly meager winds from this mornings recon. I think this storm is starting to get the show on the road.

 

Kory

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I've noticed some convective upticks recently especially in the SW quadrant where Laura has looked a bit bare and had mostly meager winds from this mornings recon. I think this storm is starting to get the show on the road.

She’s looking line a truck tire now. Big ole eye.
 

Blountwolf

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A major of this size... I'm not sure we are ready for this at all. Can't get over the size of the CDO it's creating.
 
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Latest Advisory

Winds up to 80 mph, bit of a jog back to the east for path projections.

WTNT33 KNHC 252039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
400 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2020

...LAURA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 88.3W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sargent Texas to San Luis Pass
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Freeport Texas to San Luis Pass
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East of Intracoastal City to west of Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located
near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 88.3 West. Laura is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general
motion should continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
forecast by Wednesday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward
motion should continue through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Laura will move across the central Gulf of
Mexico tonight and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
The hurricane should approach the Upper Texas and Southwest
Louisiana coasts on Wednesday night and move inland near those
areas late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Laura is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall.
Rapid weakening is expected after Laura makes landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sea Rim State Park TX to Intracoastal City LA including Sabine Lake
and Calcasieu Lake...9-13 ft
Intracoastal City to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
San Luis Pass TX to Port Bolivar...3-5 ft
Galveston Bay...3-5 ft
Freeport TX to San Luis Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. This storm surge could
penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in
southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, Laura is
expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of the northwestern
Gulf Coast from western Louisiana to far eastern Texas, and
northward into much of Arkansas. Over the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley from central Louisiana into western Tennessee and
Kentucky, and southeastern Missouri, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with
isolated totals of 6 inches are expected. This rainfall will cause
widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams to overflow their
banks, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

By late Friday into Saturday, portions of the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley could see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts as
tropical moisture from Laura moves through the region.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area Wednesday night and Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to reach the coast in the hurricane warning area late
Wednesday or Wednesday night, and are expected in the tropical
storm warning area Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds and damaging wind gusts are also expected to
spread well inland into portions of eastern Texas and western
Louisiana early Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are expected Wednesday and Wednesday
night over Louisiana, southeast Texas, and southwestern Mississippi.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Cuba, the
central Bahamas, and the Florida Keys. Swells are expected to spread
northward along portions of the west coast of Florida peninsula and
the coast of the Florida panhandle later today and tonight, and
reach the northern and northwest Gulf coast by Wednesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
 

Blountwolf

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"This storm surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline in southwestern Louisiana and far southeastern Texas."

Goodness. Surge in the flatlands.
 
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KoD

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Looks like we got recon heading back out to the GOM after there was some data problems earlier this morning. I'm curious to find out what the pressure is.
 

Blountwolf

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Blount Springs
It needs to vertically stack its circulations before any rapid intensification. It’s taking its time doing that...

Sure looks like you nailed it on that one. Still seems to be having a tough time wrapping up and stacking convection. How much does forward motion affect that? Moving fast for that big of a storm.
 

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