Hurricane Hurricane Laura

[Kory]

Future Laura is looking good this morning out in the Atlantic. This one has the potential to be the most threatening storm of the season so far to the mainland U.S. Conditions look nearly perfect for strengthening once it gets north of Hispaniola with an upper-level anti-cyclone and 30C+ water temps. The forecast becomes tricky after that. A thin ridge extention from the very stout Bermuda ridge will be extending over northern Florida...and the strength and path of 97L (currently in the Caribbean) will have huge implications. All interests from the Central Gulf Coast to the East Coast of Florida will need to keep a close eye on future Laura.

Meanwhile, WTH has happened to the Euro? It used to be a premiere model and now it can barely pick up on a developing tropical system.

 

[warneagle]

Should have Laura very soon. The NHC forecast does strengthen it to a minimal hurricane as it gets to Florida early next week.

 

[Kory]

Definitely some westerly shear from a developing anticyclone atop TD14 in the Caribbean. What a complicated set up...and one will have to be more dominant than the other.

 

[Jetstream]

Can you imagine both of these in the GOM at the same time?

 

[Kory]

Looks like it's close to degenerating into an open wave. That westerly shear advecting some drier air into the system and I see outflow boundaries racing outward...

 

[Mike S]

View attachment 4419View attachment 4420Can you imagine both of these in the GOM at the same time?

Might get a little Fujiwhara effect in the Gulf of Mexico!

 

[Kory]

Recon has found a west wind shift that should be enough for an upgrade to Laura. DMAX has really helped both systems overnight.

 

[warneagle]

We have Laura. The ninth of this year's storms to be the earliest for its letter (Marco will be the tenth).

 

[Kory]

Interaction between Laura and #14 will be very interesting. Throw in a large cut off trough over the Gulf, models are having a tough time. Both look Gulf bound...that’s for sure.

Oh, and throw in center reformations with both systems in the early stages. Laura, while having a closed circulation and TS force winds, the low pressure center is quite weak. It will get tugged and will reform toward deeper convection. Overall motion of the vorticity is WNW. That hasn’t changed.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Interaction between Laura and #14 will be very interesting. Throw in a large cut off trough over the Gulf, models are having a tough time. Both look Gulf bound...that’s for sure.

Oh, and throw in center reformations with both systems in the early stages. Laura, while having a closed circulation and TS force winds, the low pressure center is quite weak. It will get tugged and will reform toward deeper convection. Overall motion of the vorticity is WNW. That hasn’t changed.

Yeah it seems like the intensity forecast continues to be really hard to pinpoint. I think the center is going to reform and tuck the thunderstorms farther north (just my gut). When I looked at the satellite last night it seemed the center was to the north with thunderstorms displaced to the south. Is Laura expected to slow down at all? I ask because looking at the shear map, it appears the shear is dropping around Laura (albeit a small swath).The main deterrent I would say for the next 24 hours is forward speed.

 

[warneagle]

Yeah the low-level circulation in Laura relocating southward changes the calculus some. Unquestionably on course for the Gulf now, but that also means the center will be more likely to pass close to or directly over the Greater Antilles, which might slow its development. Certainly don't envy any tropical forecasters right now.

 

[Kory]

Yeah the low-level circulation in Laura relocating southward changes the calculus some. Unquestionably on course for the Gulf now, but that also means the center will be more likely to pass close to or directly over the Greater Antilles, which might slow its development. Certainly don't envy any tropical forecasters right now.

I think we’re seeing it relocate further east or it’s just elongated. Definitely seeing banding show up now.

 

[Jetstream]

Lots of questions in my mind about these storms this evening. How will they affect each other once the are both in the GOM? Intensity, track, etc... Where do the heavy rainfall bands set up and how much rain falls and where. Tornado's.....Lots to think about

 

[Kory]

She’s no longer gonna go through the islands. Models have trended north and she will ride the north coast of Hispaniola and Cuba. Could be important for strength down the road.

 

[Jetstream]

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I see there’s a good chance Laura makes landfall as a major.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I see there’s a good chance Laura makes landfall as a major.

There are several major models that have Laura making landfall with pressure falls found in cat 3 or stronger hurricanes. Hour by hour pressure drop forecast indicate a moment of rapid intensification. Globals will often misjudge how much a storm deepens during this process. It’s possible Laura will get to cat 4 or 5 status.

 

[Kory]

06z Euro goes full Fujiwara in the Gulf with Marco and Laura.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

06z Euro goes full Fujiwara in the Gulf with Marco and Laura.

Extremely unlikely scenario, but what if hypothetically both storms managed to have around the same intensity? Wouldn’t that lead to a full scale merging or would one storm have to be much stronger than the other.

 

[Blountwolf]

This is going to be really, really interesting. I'm excited to see the interaction between the two systems.