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Hurricane Hurricane Laura (1 Viewer)

Messages
214
Location
Louisiana
2:00 PM EDT Advisory on Laura

658
WTNT33 KNHC 231740
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Laura Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...LAURA HEADING TOWARD EASTERN CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SE OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has discontinued the
Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican
Republic and has discontinued the warning along the north coast of
the Dominican Republic east of Samana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of the Dominican Republic from Samana to
the border with Haiti
* Entire coast of the Haiti
* The southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Las Tunas, Holguin, Guantanamo,
Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Ciego De Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, Mayabeque, La Habana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The central Bahamas
* Andros Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to Key West and the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay

The Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 74.3 West. Laura is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. A turn toward the northwest is foreast on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura will move
near or over Cuba tonight and Monday, and move over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. Laura is expected to move
over the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast while Laura moves near
Cuba. However, strengthening is forecast after the storm moves over
the Gulf of Mexico, and Laura is forecast to become a hurricane late
Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Laura is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Tuesday:

Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba: 4 to 8 inches, with maximum
amounts of 12 inches.

Jamaica: 2 to 4 inches, with maximum amounts of 6 inches.

This heavy rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, and the potential for mudslides across the Greater
Antilles.

Florida Keys, Turks and Caicos and southeast Bahamas: 1 to 3 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area in the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
portions of the warning area in Cuba later today through Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch
area tonight through Monday evening.

SURF: Swells generated by Laura are affecting portions of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and the
Turks and Caicos Islands. These swells are expected to spread
across central and western Cuba, the central and northwestern
Bahamas, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Euro says....not so fast my friend on a major storm. Looks like some lingering dry air at 300mb gets shoved into the gulf around the Bermuda ridge and keeps it in check. Small changes at 300mb will mean this will be a moot point and the potential exists for rapid strengthening.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Still some northerly shear impacting the system...displacing the convection downshear and advecting drier air into the system. If this system would've followed the track over the northern shores of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas has VERY light shear. This will continue to have track implications...

 

akt1985

Member
Messages
597
Location
Madison, Alabama
It looks like some northerly shear is affecting Laura this morning. The NHC has not pulled the major hurricane forecast card yet as it nears the Louisiana coast but there is still time to adjust the intensity forecast upwards if need be.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
It looks like some northerly shear is affecting Laura this morning. The NHC has not pulled the major hurricane forecast card yet as it nears the Louisiana coast but there is still time to adjust the intensity forecast upwards if need be.
Seems like it’s finally alleviating. Rapid development of convection near the center and some northerly outflow...finally. Some lingering dry air questions as far as how that will affect rapid intensification chances. Otherwise, structure is improving over the last few hours.
 

Taylor Campbell

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
901
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The theme continues with forecast intensity models. They clearly and consistently show strengthening and periods of rapid intensification as Laura moves through the Gulf of Mexico. I see less reason to not forecast this as a major given current guidance.
 

Lori

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Messages
956
Location
Pelham, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Northerly shear is fighting Laura but once she starts drinking that warm Gulf water, she should intensify tomorrow. Plus, she’s big, her effects will be felt in many states and parts of the coast...
I raised a lovely, sweet Laura, y’all better hope this hurricane intensity doesn’t mimic her teen years!! JS!!
 

Blountwolf

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
179
Location
Blount Springs
Straight up - Laura scares me. That is a HUGE area of influence, and with that ULL pulling W now, the dry air shear that Marco felt will not be there for Laura.
 
Last edited:

Blountwolf

Member
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
179
Location
Blount Springs
Looking forward to seeing one do the "Yucatan Channel Turbo Boost" thing again, where a cyclone moving west just north of the channel pushes a huge slug of moisture into the Caribbean, then as the winds shift, sucks that right back into the storm.

1598320068252.png 1598320117249.png 1598320165862.png
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,738
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
If the Euro is right, it’s now showing landfall in the Houston/Galveston area.
It has a west bias. Everything else is LA/TX border. I think Rita will be a good analog track wise. We have to see how expansive the wind field is...that's what drove Rita's 20 foot storm surge.
 

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