atlantic hurricane season

I'm by no means a model aficionado, but the GFS is showing some mischief in the GOM about 10+ days out. i.e., la la land.

Is there a common thread connecting the over-amped North Atlantic high through much of the summer, the slow hurricane season, and the powerful monsoon that drenched the US Southwest? Those conditions, especially the high and the monsoon, have abruptly ended, so it will be interesting to see if...

Future Laura is looking good this morning out in the Atlantic. This one has the potential to be the most threatening storm of the season so far to the mainland U.S. Conditions look nearly perfect for strengthening once it gets north of Hispaniola with an upper-level anti-cyclone and 30C+ water...

We've got yet another invest with increasing chances for development once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, an ULL is to the west of the system providing some SWerly shear over it. If/when that pivots out of the way and allows for better upper level ventilation/outflow of the system...

We are just 4 days removed from the statistical peak of the Atlantic season and we have another problematic Cape Verde tropical wave on our hands. If this stays at a low latitude and begins development upon approach to the Caribbean, I think we may have a significant system on our hands.

Keep an eye on newly formed 95L. SHIPS keeps the shear low but land interaction might keep development at bay. Models are aiming this at the Western Caribbean. Just something to keep an eye on...

And so it begins.......

Looks like we'll have some kind of storm in the Gulf this weekend, models are clustered between Central LA and the FL Panhandle

Get out the fish sticks! A tropical wave, accompanied by a well-defined low pressure system, is located over the central tropical Atlantic several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is possible through mid-week while it moves toward...

This is getting interesting quickly lol Recon is tenatively scheduled Monday A low pressure trough over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over the next few days...

Its insanely early for this, but there is a fair amount of model support, the Euro was very aggressive at 12z and the GFS ensembles were also pretty bullish, although it probably won't survive the trip west... but still... to form that far east this early is pretty much unheard of(Bret was too...