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Mike S

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I'm by no means a model aficionado, but the GFS is showing some mischief in the GOM about 10+ days out. i.e., la la land.
 

Clancy

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NHC has now outlined the area for potential tropical development that has been much-discussed on parts of social media.
2. Northwestern Caribbean Sea:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend over the western
Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, some slow development of this system is
possible through early next week while the system moves slowly to
the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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Clancy

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NHC continues to closely monitor the potential area of development in the Caribbean Sea/GOM, assigning it a 40% 7-day probability.
3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico
through the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
1726747877213.png
 

JPWX

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12z and 18z Euro AI runs since September 17th have been consistent with Southeast Louisiana to roughly Pensacola region for potential landfall from Caribbean disturbance. I admit that I was apprehensive about using this AI model, but it's done pretty good with picking out storms in advance. Still though, it's a forecast model and like all models, it's just a tool. However, one of the key things I look for is consistency from a model.
 

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Clancy

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12z and 18z Euro AI runs since September 17th have been consistent with Southeast Louisiana to roughly Pensacola region for potential landfall from Caribbean disturbance. I admit that I was apprehensive about using this AI model, but it's done pretty good with picking out storms in advance. Still though, it's a forecast model and like all models, it's just a tool. However, one of the key things I look for is consistency from a model.
Globals and ensembles also continue to indicate development in varying degrees of intensity and geographical placement, but the signal is definitely there, more than is typical. Of course, all we can do is wait, for now.
 

Clancy

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50% 7-day probability as of 2 PM EDT.
3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter,
gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical
depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or
northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern
Gulf of Mexico through the end of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
1726857922999.png
 

wx_guy

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I will say it appears the models have the most consistent signaling of the entire season so far on this area, which is why we have a 60% area to watch 4-5 days before it even forms. I think especially Florida (entire state) is in the crosshairs here.
 

Clancy

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And now NHC has designated an area for possible development coming off the West African coast.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon):
Strong upper-level winds continue to keep showers displaced well
to the east of an area of low pressure (the remnants of Gordon)
located over one thousand miles southwest of the Azores.
Development of this system is not expected while it moves slowly
northwestward over the central subtropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL96):
An area of low pressure located about 700 miles southeast of
Bermuda continues to produce a small cluster of showers and
thunderstorms northeast of its center. However, the low is
embedded in a very dry environment, and therefore significant
development is not expected while it moves generally northward at 5
to 10 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly northward across the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico through the end of
next week. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form next week
while the wave moves westward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Forecaster Berg
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Clancy

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The topic of much, some hyperbolic, conversation on places like Twitter, modelling continues to be, at times, impressively consistent with regard to a potentially robust tropical cyclone impacting some area of the eastern Gulf Coast. While it's obviously way too early to be certain of anything, with warm GOM waters and a relatively permissive atmospheric environment, if I were anywhere between New Orleans and Tampa, I'd be watching this one very closely.
trend-gfs-2024092212-f105.prateptype_cat-imp.us_se.gif
 
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