2019 Hurricane Season

[Mike S]

And so it begins.......

 

[warneagle]

Idk where stuff from other basins belongs but this is a potentially catastrophic situation facing India right now.

 

[Mike S]

looks to be slightly weakening but is still going to be a monster upon landfall.

 

[Mike S]

Fani at 135 knots, down about 20 IIRC.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0119web.txt

 

[Mike S]

Puri, India is taking a direct hit. Population of 200,000.

 

[warneagle]

The Indian government apparently wanted to evacuate something like 1.2 million people from the area that’s threatened by the storm. It would be a pretty amazing feat if they managed to do that.

 

[bjdeming]

The Indian government apparently wanted to evacuate something like 1.2 million people from the area that’s threatened by the storm. It would be a pretty amazing feat if they managed to do that.

Reportedly, they did it! Still early days, though. . .

 

[warneagle]

Only 57 fatalities so far in a part of the world that’s very vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts is astonishingly low. If it holds at around that number, it would be a real credit to the efforts of the Indian and Bangladeshi governments in warning and evacuating people.

 

[Weatherphreak]

I was looking at the GFS for the upcoming severe weather outbreak and noticed an interesting feature moving north through the Bahamas toward the end of May. Didn’t see it on the FV3 but something to watch I guess.

 

[warneagle]

It's GFS fantasycane season!

 

[Mike S]

"

 

[Kory]

Growing consensus of a monsoonal gyre in the Caribbean in the next 1-2 weeks.

 

[Kory]

Don't be surprised if we get Tropical Storm Barry in the Caribbean/Southern Gulf to start June. MJO progression looks favorable for development from a monsoonal gyre near Central America.

 

[Kory]

Just something to keep an eye on is the disturbance that will form in the Bay of Campeche. Indications is that it may get drawn north into the Gulf Coast by a deep trough and will bring the Southeast much needed rain.

 

[warneagle]

NHC is currently giving it 60% in the next 48 hours. It's not winning any beauty pageants but it's something to watch.

 

[Mike S]

Officially Hurricane szn

 

[Mike S]

Neat graphic

 

[Mike S]

also, I really hate how Twitter has made it so difficult to copy their links now

 

[WesL]

Go ahead and mark your calendars. Aug 3-8 there will be a system in the Gulf just because I have a cruise planned.

In other news...

AF Reserve heading out Monday to take a look at it.

 

[WesL]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.