Only 57 fatalities so far in a part of the world that’s very vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts is astonishingly low. If it holds at around that number, it would be a real credit to the efforts of the Indian and Bangladeshi governments in warning and evacuating people.
I was looking at the GFS for the upcoming severe weather outbreak and noticed an interesting feature moving north through the Bahamas toward the end of May. Didn’t see it on the FV3 but something to watch I guess.
Just something to keep an eye on is the disturbance that will form in the Bay of Campeche. Indications is that it may get drawn north into the Gulf Coast by a deep trough and will bring the Southeast much needed rain.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.