2019 Hurricane Season

[bwalk]

This was the GFS a couple of days ago for June 15!! GFS loves to get really excited during hurricane season

 

[warneagle]

The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is down to a 40% chance of development. It’s gonna be a soaker for Mexico and Texas regardless of its formal status though.

 

[warneagle]

We’ve got Hurricane Barbara in the Pacific now.

 

[warneagle]

And it went from a tropical storm to a cat 4 in 24 hours. Wow.

 

[ARCC]

Gonna make a run at Cat 5.

 

[bjdeming]

Now here's something you don't see every day -- the Moon's shadow just brushing a major hurricane during a solar eclipse. (I know everyone's seen it; just wanted to get it in the thread.)

 

[Kory]

Keep next weekend in mind. Potentially for Gulf of Mexico development next week.

 

[Bama Ravens]

I’m headed to the beach next weekend, this system cannot happen.

 

[Kory]

I’m headed to the beach next weekend, this system cannot happen.

Yeah, growing consensus of something developing along a stalled boundary in the Northern Gulf. Euro ramps this thing up which forces it poleward. The GFS is weaker which keeps it trapped underneath the ridge over the Central US.

 

[Kory]

The Euro continues to show rapid development of a system in the Gulf this week. I have a feeling it is a bit overzealous but wherever it ends up, it’ll be a big rain maker.

 

[Mike S]

 

[Kory]

 

[Bama Ravens]

12z Euro went pretty far west

 

[Kory]

12z Euro went pretty far west

It has a tendency to be a bit too far west. I’d take a blend of the GFS and Euro right now over a single model.

 

[Kory]

Now the GFS comes onboard into LA/MS.

We’ll need a thread soon.

 

[Bama Ravens]

GFS is west now. This is going to screw up at least the first two days of my beach trip. I’m sure the rain lovers will be happy, though. I’m legitimately angry over this.

 

[Mike S]

From the NHC:

 

[Kory]

I suspect we'll have an invest by Tuesday. GEFS members are clustered from SELA to Southern MS and SW AL. Large shift west.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The lack of wind shear out there is pretty impressive.

 

[Kory]

Not really liking the constant troughing/atmospheric weakness over the Central Gulf Coast as we continue deeper into the hurricane season.

Speaking of that, looks like we get a front all the way down to the Gulf with some hints of a disturbance trying to spin up later next week. Just something to keep an eye on.