2019 Hurricane Season (2 Viewers)


Taylor Campbell

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GFS, and EURO showing signs of a long tracker from the eastern Atlantic to the western Atlantic within the next 14 days.
This is the system to watch.

3. tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Carbin
 

JayF

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Models have another hurricane brushing the east coast in 2 weeks and possible coming ashore near Connecticut and New Jersey
 
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Models have another hurricane brushing the east coast in 2 weeks and possible coming ashore near Connecticut and New Jersey

I hope it’s true for New Jersey as I want to experience one and a strong one at that. I want to quote Lieutenant Dan from Forrest Gump and say “you call this a storm!!!!???” I’m right here!!!! Come and get me!!!
 

Lori

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I hope it’s true for New Jersey as I want to experience one and a strong one at that. I want to quote Lieutenant Dan from Forrest Gump and say “you call this a storm!!!!???” I’m right here!!!! Come and get me!!!
I don’t think most people would have said anything but “Mommy” if they’d ride out anything like Dorian for 51hours!!
Be careful what you wish for!!
 

Kory

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Ensemble support is there for a long tracker Cape Verde but solutions are all over the board from the Caribbean Islands to a recurve and everything in between. We are in the peak of hurricane season.
 

Taylor Campbell

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Ensemble support is there for a long tracker Cape Verde but solutions are all over the board from the Caribbean Islands to a recurve and everything in between. We are in the peak of hurricane season.
On track to be named Imelda so long as 92L becomes Humberto first. Both Fernand, and Gabrielle have formed today.
 

JayF

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5 possible storms at one time between the Gulf and Atlantic. This is going to be an interesting next couple of weeks.


4 Sep 19.png
 

Kory

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The GFS continues to indicate some development coming from a tropical wave rolling off of Africa way down the line as it limps across the MDR and into the Caribbean. Those are the ones that worry me...
 

Taylor Campbell

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Watch the disturbance north of the Leeward Islands closely. Models are increasing support for organization, and point it towards the US. A few EURO ensembles had strengthening hurricanes making landfall across the northern Gulf or Southeast coast. NAVGEM has it organizing in the southeast Gulf by Friday.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Dorian, located over Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Little development
of this system is anticipated during the next few days due to
strong upper-level winds while the system moves north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development after that time when system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake
 
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Also watch out for a landfalling system as well in late September and early October. I have a sneaky feeling this year we will see the landfalling of a tropical system somewhere in northeast U.S. coast. Just a hunch, but the odd situation happening with Dorian just gives you that sense.
 

Kory

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To add on, while no invest has been declared, models slowly organize the system North of Puerto Rico as it heads WNW. Some guidance develops a weak system as it crosses Florida into the Gulf of Mexico.
 

Taylor Campbell

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There's a very significant reduction of wind shear forecast basin wide (from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic) starting this weekend, and through next week. Really anything during that period will have a shot for development.
 

Weatherphreak

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18z of the GFS at hour 150 on . What’s left of the Bahamas would take a direct hit as well as the entire East Coast of Florida. Still way out but something to watch for sure.
 
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There's a very significant reduction of wind shear forecast basin wide (from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic) starting this weekend, and through next week. Really anything during that period will have a shot for development.
Interesting then that NHC cites increasing wind shear in a few days as a main reason for not raising probabilities on 94L.
 

Kory

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While all eyes are focused on those invests way out in the Atlantic, the tropical wave north of Hispaniola is slowly organizing. Models continue to increase chances of development with the GFS/CMC indicating a landfalling tropical storm over the central Gulf. Euro operational is not as impressed, but several ensemble members look very similar to the GFS/CMC with a landfalling tropical storm early next week.
 

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