This is the system to watch.GFS, and EURO showing signs of a long tracker from the eastern Atlantic to the western Atlantic within the next 14 days.
Models have another hurricane brushing the east coast in 2 weeks and possible coming ashore near Connecticut and New Jersey
I don’t think most people would have said anything but “Mommy” if they’d ride out anything like Dorian for 51hours!!I hope it’s true for New Jersey as I want to experience one and a strong one at that. I want to quote Lieutenant Dan from Forrest Gump and say “you call this a storm!!!!???” I’m right here!!!! Come and get me!!!
On track to be named Imelda so long as 92L becomes Humberto first. Both Fernand, and Gabrielle have formed today.Ensemble support is there for a long tracker Cape Verde but solutions are all over the board from the Caribbean Islands to a recurve and everything in between. We are in the peak of hurricane season.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2019
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Dorian, located over Nova Scotia, and on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.
1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
2. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 300 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Little development
of this system is anticipated during the next few days due to
strong upper-level winds while the system moves north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions could
become more conducive for development after that time when system
moves slowly west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Interesting then that NHC cites increasing wind shear in a few days as a main reason for not raising probabilities on 94L.There's a very significant reduction of wind shear forecast basin wide (from the Gulf of Mexico to the eastern Atlantic) starting this weekend, and through next week. Really anything during that period will have a shot for development.