Archive Former Tropical Depression Four thread

[Brent]

Its insanely early for this, but there is a fair amount of model support, the Euro was very aggressive at 12z and the GFS ensembles were also pretty bullish, although it probably won't survive the trip west... but still... to form that far east this early is pretty much unheard of(Bret was too and it was much further west)

and right on cue the 0z Euro says storm cancel lmao

A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge into the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday. Some development of this
system is then possible until the weekend when environmental
conditions are forecast to be less favorable for further
organization.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[Brent]

The 18z GFS was uh, interesting, pretty close to a repeat of Matthew near the US. This is not the first GFS run with a US threat in the LR.

 

[apocalyptic_pleasures]

GFS continues to show this general idea along with its Ensemble while GFS Para shows it staying a wave with at times developing a weak LP area eventually affecting the N Gulf Coast. Euro doesn't develop it Canadian does but keeps it fairly weak ending up near Jamaica by hr 240. Here is climo info. Central/East Atlantic is rare but not unheard of in early July.

 

[Brent]

Models fairly bullish for this early.... looks like it could be around awhile

Looks it'll head WNW towards or north of the Caribbean for the next week or so and then we'll see. If it can survive to next weekend conditions may become a lot more favorable.

Last few runs of the GFS do keep it east of the US though

 

[Brent]

Code RED

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system has remained nearly stationary for the
past several hours about 650 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Although shower and thunderstorm activity is currently
disorganized, environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression after
midweek. The disturbance is expected to drift westward for the next
day or two, followed a motion toward the west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

 

[Brent]

okay so much for this lol... maybe something weak but meh

 

[Brent]

TD 4 but not expected to get named

 

[Brent]

The Euro says this may not be dead yet... near Pensacola with some TS force winds next Sunday

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I wish they had this thing classified as an invest, and were running models on it. It has done a good job at sustaining itself, and producing a concentrated area of thunderstorm activity. It's interesting that models really don't want to do much with it other than keep it going as is. I'm just looking at what is unfavorable about its environment, and while it is encountering shear and less warm sea surface temperatures now, the shear lightens out ahead with time, and the water temperatures get warmer. I think there's potential here for something more significant that the models are missing right now.

 

[Brent]

Should be running models again soon, and recon is scheduled tomorrow.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO tightens it up a little more this run, and has it making landfall on the tip of LA.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EURO tightens it up a little more this run, and has it making landfall on the tip of LA.

And now there are a good number of GFS ensemble members picking up on, and forming a formidable storm on the Gulf side of Florida.

Hmmmmm.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Ensemble members of the GFS have backed off on development, and so did last night's EURO.