Hurricane Hurricane Humberto

[Kory]

We've got yet another invest with increasing chances for development once it enters the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, an ULL is to the west of the system providing some SWerly shear over it. If/when that pivots out of the way and allows for better upper level ventilation/outflow of the system, some organization will likely occur. SHIPS is being particularly aggressive bringing it up to category 1 strength.

I'm skeptical that upper-level conditions will be good enough for continual strengthening, but don't be surprised to see a tropical storm in the Gulf this weekend.

 

[Kory]

 

[Kory]

What a shift in the last 24 hours. The trend is east.

 

[MattW]

A very Dorian-like track, fortunately without any of the same strength.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It sucks to see models start off bringing this into your back yard only to adjust hundreds of miles east so that it brings nothing.

 

[Kory]

It sucks to see models start off bringing this into your back yard only to adjust hundreds of miles east so that it brings nothing.

This will only dry us out more which we don’t need.

 

[South AL Wx]

Advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine at 5 pm.

 

[South AL Wx]

 

[warneagle]

Ugh.

 

[akt1985]

Invest 95L is now Tropical Storm Humberto. The system is forecast to move away from the US towards Bermuda.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Just something to make a note of:

 

[Kory]

I don’t see any reliable guidance that shows any impact from Humberto the U.S. This is solidly out to sea with possible impacts to Bermuda.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

I don’t see any reliable guidance that shows any impact from Humberto the U.S. This is solidly out to sea with possible impacts to Bermuda.

I agree wholeheartedly with you that this is an out to sea solution with most of the reliable models predicting that, but it cannot be ignored that about 1/3 of the EPS 18z models do have at least some amount of recurvature back to the coast. Just something interesting to note even though I don’t ever expect this to recurve or come close to the coast.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

I agree wholeheartedly with you that this is an out to sea solution with most of the reliable models predicting that, but it cannot be ignored that about 1/3 of the EPS 18z models do have at least some amount of recurvature back to the coast. Just something interesting to note even though I don’t ever expect this to recurve or come close to the coast.

Obviously outliers, but I am interested in seeing it unfold.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Humberto is a hurricane, and looks to become a major.

 

[WesL]

Updated Hurricane and tag. Really glad Humberto is taking a nice trek out to see.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It’s not favored, but it’s very interesting how you have a handful of ensembles from every model suite pointing this back towards the US.