For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is disorganized and limited. This system is expected to move west northwestward across the Caribbean Sea and the Greater Antilles during the next few days bringing locally heavy rainfall and possibly some flooding across portions of these islands. Little or no development of this disturbance is anticipated during the next couple of days. However, conditions could be a little more conducive for tropical cyclone formation when the system reaches the the Florida Straits or the Bahamas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.