Archive Former Hurricane Nate

[Brent]

Looks like we'll have some kind of storm in the Gulf this weekend, models are clustered between Central LA and the FL Panhandle

 

[Kory]

Yeah, forward speed and land interaction is going to determine if it follows the left or right side of guidance. Euro/Ukmet is slower, thus more east toward Panama City Beach. Faster solution with the GFS is more toward SELA. I'd take a blend of the two for now until we get a center fix (later today) and this consolidates into a tighter storm versus a monsoonal gyre. But don't be surprised if we have a minimal hurricane in the Gulf this weekend...

This is will a very lopsided storm with most of the action to the east. A Ukmet/Euro track would mean minimal effects to AL and points west, outside the very SE portion of the state. An approaching trough will increase shear across the storm in the Gulf and allow for dry air entrainment.

We've been quite dry in AL for the past few weeks. Could use some rain.

 

[Jacob]

Yeah, forward speed and land interaction is going to determine if it follows the left or right side of guidance. Euro/Ukmet is slower, thus more east toward Panama City Beach. Faster solution with the GFS is more toward SELA. I'd take a blend of the two for now until we get a center fix (later today) and this consolidates into a tighter storm versus a monsoonal gyre. But don't be surprised if we have a minimal hurricane in the Gulf this weekend...

This is will a very lopsided storm with most of the action to the east. A Ukmet/Euro track would mean minimal effects to AL and points west, outside the very SE portion of the state. An approaching trough will increase shear across the storm in the Gulf and allow for dry air entrainment.

We've been quite dry in AL for the past few weeks. Could use some rain.

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the GFS and Euro are almost the same timing wise. Landfall within 6 hours or so of each other. The real difference seems to come from how much different the two are handling the trough digging into the plains. Euro digs the initial trough into the plains/midwest much more at 72-84 hours, which beats back the ridge to the east of the system a bit and allows the more easterly path.

 

[Brent]

TD 16 coming

 

[Kory]

Not trying to be nitpicky, but the GFS and Euro are almost the same timing wise. Landfall within 6 hours or so of each other. The real difference seems to come from how much different the two are handling the trough digging into the plains. Euro digs the initial trough into the plains/midwest much more at 72-84 hours, which beats back the ridge to the east of the system a bit and allows the more easterly path.

I was looking at 00z data for both models and the GFS looked a bit faster to me. Allowed it to get further NW before the curve. No need to worry about being nitpicky. Always good to have another interpretation.

Another key factor seems to be the handling of the Bahamas disturbance. So far, it seem the Euro is really on its own with regards to leaving a weakness versus other models keeping the ridging stronger over FL/GA for the weekend time frame. Hard to bet against the Euro...

 

[Kory]

NHC first track gives huge weight to the Euro. Completely discounts the GFS.

 

[WesL]

 

[TuckerTerry]

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo .... I'm over this hurricane season already! Living in Atlanta, I never thought I'd have to do any storm prep ....and this will be twice in one year.

Go away, Nate!

 

[TuckerTerry]

Next intermediate in just about 20 minutes. Wonder if we'll have Nate by then. Looking at their cone graphic, it sure does look that way.

 

[WesL]

Still TD16

2:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4
Location: 12.3°N 82.3°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

 

[Destin Native]

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo .... I'm over this hurricane season already! Living in Atlanta, I never thought I'd have to do any storm prep ....and this will be twice in one year.

Go away, Nate!

I'm with you! We are near Valdosta and own a place in Keaton Beach, FL (near Steinhatchee), I'm sick of cleaning up tree debris. Plus, my husband works for Georgia Power Co he's sick of it too....

 

[TuckerTerry]

I'm with you! We are near Valdosta and own a place in Keaton Beach, FL (near Steinhatchee), I'm sick of cleaning up tree debris. Plus, my husband works for Georgia Power Co he's sick of it too....

I feel certain both of you are ...and thankful for him for all he does.

Hopefully this one just doesn't develop as they're currently saying.

 

[Jacob]

Latest Euro brings it in as a strong Cat 2-ish near Panama City Sunday night/Monday morning.

 

[JayF]

Interesting Development. Looks like Rain and wind this weekend.

 

[TuckerTerry]

Latest Euro brings it in as a strong Cat 2-ish near Panama City Sunday night/Monday morning.

That's my concern, without so much land mass to kill it, like Irma. Ugh

 

[akt1985]

That's my concern, without so much land mass to kill it, like Irma. Ugh

Latest Euro brings it in as a strong Cat 2-ish near Panama City Sunday night/Monday morning.

Are there any models that bring Nate to Category 3 status before landfall?

 

[WesL]

Are there any models that bring Nate to Category 3 status before landfall?

Not at the moment.

 

[TuckerTerry]

GFS vs. Euro - Wow, what a difference!

 

[TuckerTerry]

5 pm looks a bit different than the 11 am. <sigh>

 

[TuckerTerry]

Quite a substantial shift overnight. Looks like Euro agrees with GFS now.