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The models are still messy, but it seems the ensembles are a bit tighter, and to my eye, shifting back west a tad. This makes sense based on what Kory posted, in this image, the UKMET is an outlier to the west.View attachment 1993
That's very interesting.The NHC cone of error is a fixed distance from forecast points based on a running average of past forecast track error. It does not expand or contract based on forecast uncertainty.
Latest Euro never makes a landfall in Florida, stalls it off the coast and then turns north.
This imagery is from several hours ago but it’s still a really cool visulization.
While a Day 4 landfall is currently forecast (avg track error arnd
150mi), it is becoming increasingly likely that east central Florida
Peninsula will experience a prolonged hurricane event due to the
weakening steering flow, as the official forecast indicates Dorian
will take two days to travel from the northern Bahamas to the I-10
Corridor.
Dangerous and beautiful!!Gorgeous stadium effect setting up. Shame this cycle might peak overnight (can't see it ramping up too long without an ERC) as it would make some phenomenal visible shots.
View attachment 1995