Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[Richardjacks]

Once Dorian begins to slow down and dip to the SW and stall, it’s anybody’s game. I don’t believe a single specific solution. It is literally teetering on the edge of a ULL, a large ridge, and a shallow, fleeting trough. It is going to be very close.

Yep, I fully expect more changes in the coming days...Unfortunately, this will keep millions on edge.

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Does anyone have a link to a chart of millibar to wind speed correlation in a hurricane by chance?

www.pcwp.com/sss.html



My assumption is you want to know what a 918 millibar hurricane is in terms of wind speed?

 

[majorhurricane1703]

Wow!

That’s crazy. Could you imagine the amount of damage there would be if that model happened to be right and the western eyewall rode up the east coast. I’m curious does anyone know if that has actually ever happened before where the eyewall of a hurricane just hugged up a coast?

 

[TornadoFan]

Looks like Dorian is intensifying again. Recon plane found a pressure of 973 mb.

 

[MattW]

Good grief! The models are all over the place! I can't even eyeball a mean for this one.

 

[TornadoFan]

Yikes.

 

[TornadoFan]

We have a Category 2 Dorian. Sustained winds up to 105 mph and pressure at 977

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tammy Public Advisory

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[Bama Ravens]

Max sustained winds at landfall are forecasted to be 140mph. Up from 130mph on the last advisory.

 

[TornadoFan]

Ugh..

 

[majorhurricane1703]

The track shifted slightly south. It will be interesting to see if there are farther shifts south in the track going forward.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Very tall towers going up right now with Dorian. Also, looks to be on a pretty good westerly move as opposed to northerly.

 

[Kory]

Ugh..

I actually see an upper-level ridge to the northwest that may induce some light northerly shear and drier continental air that may weaken it some upon approach.

 

[South AL Wx]

I actually see an upper-level ridge to the northwest that may induce some light northerly shear and drier continental air that may weaken it some upon approach.

The 5 am advisory hinted at the possible northerly shear:

Although overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for
strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that
some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves
through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC
official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA,
Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is
forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain
that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the
Florida peninsula.

 

[Kory]

The eye is beginning to clear out. Pull up satellite, notice the elongation to the W/WNW, that turn is imminent.

 

[mbrewer]

The eye is beginning to clear out. Pull up satellite, notice the elongation to the W/WNW, that turn is imminent.

Yep

Mesoscale visible loop

 

[Kory]

Something to think about. The UKMET has been the best performing model statistically.

 

[TornadoFan]

Look at that eye.

 

[DaveFromGA]

That’s crazy. Could you imagine the amount of damage there would be if that model happened to be right and the western eyewall rode up the east coast. I’m curious does anyone know if that has actually ever happened before where the eyewall of a hurricane just hugged up a coast?

David in 1979 and Matthew in 2016 had tracks up the Florida coast.

 

[MattW]

The models are still messy, but it seems the ensembles are a bit tighter, and to my eye, shifting back west a tad. This makes sense based on what Kory posted, in this image, the UKMET is an outlier to the west.

 

[Kory]

And the UKMET just caved. Pretty good consensus.