• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Logo 468x120

Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

Timhsv

Member
Messages
410
Reaction score
684
Location
Meridianville, AL.
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Does anyone have a link to a chart of millibar to wind speed correlation in a hurricane by chance?
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
It looks really impressive on radar right now. Well-defined eye, nearly completely closed eyewall.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Looks like a little bit of dry air from some light southerly shear induced by the ULL was ingested by Dorian. Should be short duration as it shifts WSW (the ULL that is).
 

bjdeming

Member
Sustaining Member
Messages
1,512
Reaction score
1,231
Location
Corvallis, Oregon
Was just looking at the Melbourne current HWO. Sounds like things are already soaked in the general area where Dorian might cross over to the Gulf. I know it isn't exactly the Everglades there, but could there be enough wet ground in this part of Florida to limit the amount of weakening a land passage might otherwise cause?
 
  • Thread starter
  • Moderator
  • #68

Taylor Campbell

Moderator
Moderator
PerryW Project Supporter
Messages
2,102
Reaction score
2,189
Location
Wedowee, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
It’ll be interesting to see how the models look in 48hrs, and if it’s passing very close or well south of 25N/70W. Ensembles are splitting the difference a lot at that point. Tropical model agreement with the global ensemble means suggest the future path of Dorian is favored to take the paths closest or north of the mean line.
 

MattW

Member
Messages
307
Reaction score
206
Location
Decatur, GA
HAM Callsign
KG4GUF
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
1567076620530.png
All of a sudden, the models are not showing a Gulf reemergence and instead going north through Florida into Georgia.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
125 mph would be the strongest landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida since Andrew.
 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
View attachment 1990
All of a sudden, the models are not showing a Gulf reemergence and instead going north through Florida into Georgia.
Some ensemble guidance continues to show a Gulf emergence. I think the biggest thing to take away is the slow down all models have shown upon approach to Florida. Euro guidance (especially the new hi-res 06z and 18z runs) has it damn near stalling in the Bahamas which throws a wrench into things altogether.

If we get steering currents collapsing, it's game on for any solution.
 

JayF

Technical Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Sustaining Member
Technical Admin
Messages
1,624
Reaction score
878
Location
Hartselle, al
HAM Callsign
KB4JCS
Most of the models are in agreement of moving this up through Central Florida, however you have a couple that still pull this into the Gulf. Curious to see how the models change as this gets closer to land.
 

South AL Wx

Member
Meteorologist
Messages
309
Reaction score
311
Location
Wetumpka, AL
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
The latest NHC forecast now brings Dorian up to a category 4 with 130 mph winds. The track forecast was basically unchanged, maybe a bit slower.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
3,729
Reaction score
3,208
Location
Arlington, VA
Special Affiliations
  1. SKYWARN® Volunteer
Florida State-Boise State game in Jacksonville has been relocated to Tallahassee.

 

Kory

Member
Messages
4,928
Reaction score
2,119
Location
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
Once Dorian begins to slow down and dip to the SW and stall, it’s anybody’s game. I don’t believe a single specific solution. It is literally teetering on the edge of a ULL, a large ridge, and a shallow, fleeting trough. It is going to be very close.
 
Back
Top