Hurricane Hurricane Dorian (1 Viewer)

Kory

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In my humble opinion though, I think the bend back west will occur slightly sooner after it passes Haiti than current thinking assuming it holds together and South Florida is the main target. I am very surprised more of the models don't dissipate this while near Haiti. Besides the fact it will spend time over land (albeit the lesser mountainous parts of Haiti and for only about 12 hours), I have had a hard time envisioning the shear not degenerating it into an open wave.
It's going to completely miss Haiti to the east at this point. If there will be any land interaction, it'll be Puerto Rico.

As far as shear is concerned, it depends on the positioning of the ULL that will be moving WSW over the Florida Straits and Cuba.
 

warneagle

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Yeah at this point it looks like it'll miss Hispaniola altogether. Which is bad for Puerto Rico of course, but also might mean a less deteriorated storm after it gets past there. Still plenty of potential problems for it once it gets past there but for now plenty of rain that PR doesn't need.
 

Kory

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Track uncertainty at 5 days is quite high. 90% of ensemble members on the three big globals favor a landfalling storm (likely a hurricane) on the Atlantic coast of Florida. Beyond that, it will depend on the strength of the ridge over the CONUS and Bermuda high. The fact that the storm is missing the biggest islands to the east make things worse down the line. Some of the stronger ensemble guidance are solid major hurricanes in Florida and crossing into the Gulf.

Oh, and don't let a particularly popular Alabama met wave the all-clear sign. It is not all clear, despite his itching desire to be the first to claim it will recurve east of here.
 

Kory

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It's easy when you have a big ego, lots of twitter followers, and easy access to such simple graphics as spaghetti plots to not be obligated to dive into the physics of the models.

Here is a great case of what true meteorology is...dissecting models and using knowledge of how these systems interact based on previous experience:

 

MattW

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My gut is we'll get a much better handle on the track once it clears Puerto Rico tomorrow morning. I'm eagerly awaiting tomorrow's 6z and in particular the 12z models.
 
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It's easy when you have a big ego, lots of twitter followers, and easy access to such simple graphics as spaghetti plots to not be obligated to dive into the physics of the models.

Here is a great case of what true meteorology is...dissecting models and using knowledge of how these systems interact based on previous experience:



I agree whole heartedly with this. I think the models are too far north. The question I have myself is if it does dive farther south like I believe it will, how much farther south will it dive? I own two places in the Lantana area and both of them literally sit right on the inlet so this is of especial concern to me.
 

Lori

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Well, that’s the last time I fall asleep with TWC on.... I don’t have to read this thread...I dreamed about it all night!!
 

South AL Wx

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Dorian is now a 70 mph tropical storm on the 11 am EDT advisory. Now forecast to reach major hurricane status (category 3, 115 mph).

150120_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
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Any chance this hurricane makes it to a category 4 or 5?


This depends a lot on the dry air and if any were to get pushed down to the south from the central Atlantic. The current thinking is the shear and dry air will be low from tomorrow night (and especially) on Friday all the way to landfall. In a way, you could make an argument the worst case scenario for the U.S. would be if the dry air persisted slightly longer than expected and then dropped off dramatically the last 24 hours before landfall. That’s where you can have a situation where the winds go from like 110 to 160 in a 24 hour period.
 
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Remember strong storms go through eyewall replacement cycles, which would be less likely to happen 24 hours prior to landfall if the system were to start strengthening from a strong category 2.
 

Kory

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The GFS has a tendency to over amplify shortwaves, which is why its the furthest east solution and tugging the consensus model north and east of the rest of the guidance. We've seen it adjust some south and west, but its still north of the other big globals.
 

warneagle

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Dorian is a hurricane now. 75 mph, pressure down to 997 mb. Still chugging along to the NW at 13. Right over St. Thomas right now.
 

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