Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[Timhsv]

Does anyone have a link to a chart of millibar to wind speed correlation in a hurricane by chance?

 

[warneagle]

There's a general chart here if you scroll down: https://secoora.org/education-outreach/hurricanes/hurricane-glossary/ (I assume this is what you were looking for?)

 

[warneagle]

It looks really impressive on radar right now. Well-defined eye, nearly completely closed eyewall.

 

[Kory]

Looks like a little bit of dry air from some light southerly shear induced by the ULL was ingested by Dorian. Should be short duration as it shifts WSW (the ULL that is).

 

[Timhsv]

There's a general chart here if you scroll down: https://secoora.org/education-outreach/hurricanes/hurricane-glossary/ (I assume this is what you were looking for?)

Ahh, thank you sir!

 

[akt1985]

Dorian up to 85 mph per the 11 PM Eastern advisory.

 

[bjdeming]

Was just looking at the Melbourne current HWO. Sounds like things are already soaked in the general area where Dorian might cross over to the Gulf. I know it isn't exactly the Everglades there, but could there be enough wet ground in this part of Florida to limit the amount of weakening a land passage might otherwise cause?

 

[Taylor Campbell]

It’ll be interesting to see how the models look in 48hrs, and if it’s passing very close or well south of 25N/70W. Ensembles are splitting the difference a lot at that point. Tropical model agreement with the global ensemble means suggest the future path of Dorian is favored to take the paths closest or north of the mean line.

 

[MattW]

All of a sudden, the models are not showing a Gulf reemergence and instead going north through Florida into Georgia.

 

[warneagle]

125 mph would be the strongest landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida since Andrew.

 

[Kory]

View attachment 1990
All of a sudden, the models are not showing a Gulf reemergence and instead going north through Florida into Georgia.

Some ensemble guidance continues to show a Gulf emergence. I think the biggest thing to take away is the slow down all models have shown upon approach to Florida. Euro guidance (especially the new hi-res 06z and 18z runs) has it damn near stalling in the Bahamas which throws a wrench into things altogether.

If we get steering currents collapsing, it's game on for any solution.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

125 mph would be the strongest landfall on the Atlantic coast of Florida since Andrew.

Remember when Irma was supposed to be that and then some?

 

[JayF]

Most of the models are in agreement of moving this up through Central Florida, however you have a couple that still pull this into the Gulf. Curious to see how the models change as this gets closer to land.

 

[South AL Wx]

The latest NHC forecast now brings Dorian up to a category 4 with 130 mph winds. The track forecast was basically unchanged, maybe a bit slower.

 

[warneagle]

Florida State-Boise State game in Jacksonville has been relocated to Tallahassee.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[Jason Ledbetter]

Wow!

 

[akt1985]

It looks like the intensification slowed down today.

 

[Kory]

Once Dorian begins to slow down and dip to the SW and stall, it’s anybody’s game. I don’t believe a single specific solution. It is literally teetering on the edge of a ULL, a large ridge, and a shallow, fleeting trough. It is going to be very close.