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Hurricane Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
majorhurricane1703
Member
I could be wrong, but I still feel the ridge will be much stronger than expected and the system will go much farther west into the Gulf. Obviously not the most likely scenario given the forecast for there to be a weakness in the ridge, but I really don't feel they have the overall forward speed of the storm down. This system to me will move much farther west.
- Moderator
- #103
The uncertainty here is paramount, as depicted by the latest NHC forecast cone.
While I don't think this is the likely scenario, it's depicted as a possibility that the storm grazes the Florida Keys and loops around to landfall at the Appalachian Bay South of Tallahassee. The degredation of obvious steering currents leads to immense unpredictability at this point. I certainly wouldn't want to be the NHC or FEMA at this point..
My personal prediction for the past 2 days has been a south Miami landfall, track across the peninsula and a northern turn before reaching the GOM. With a small trough sliding between two ridges & the upper ridge over the Fl peninsula adding shear then weakening, only time can tell.
While I don't think this is the likely scenario, it's depicted as a possibility that the storm grazes the Florida Keys and loops around to landfall at the Appalachian Bay South of Tallahassee. The degredation of obvious steering currents leads to immense unpredictability at this point. I certainly wouldn't want to be the NHC or FEMA at this point..
My personal prediction for the past 2 days has been a south Miami landfall, track across the peninsula and a northern turn before reaching the GOM. With a small trough sliding between two ridges & the upper ridge over the Fl peninsula adding shear then weakening, only time can tell.
Kory
Member
The NHC cone of error is a fixed distance from forecast points based on a running average of past forecast track error. It does not expand or contract based on forecast uncertainty.
majorhurricane1703
Member
I could be wrong in this hypothesis, but I would think the sooner it moves westward, the better chance it has to gain further longitude westward and dip southward before gaining latitude later and turning north.
TornadoFan
Member
Intense eyewall.
TornadoFan
Member
Dorian is now a Cat. 3 with sustained winds of 115 MPH according to the latest NHC advisory.
- Moderator
- #108
DaveFromGA
Member
Sharky75
Member
The uncertainty of if, when, how, and where Dorian is going to turn is very annoying. Wish I knew the future, weather-wise.
Evan
Member
Hopefully that run becomes more of the future concensus. I certainly don't envy the NHC in this situation. I think it will take several consistent runs from competing models before they'll shift their forecast away from a Florida landfall. Too much at stake to prematurely downplay Dorian as a landfall risk to Florida, and I'm sure you agree.
My concern is that the EPS earlier today still has 20 members with a track into the Gulf. A huge portion of Dorian's track is going to be highly dependent upon how strong the ridge is, exactly where it sets up, and how much/where it first begins to weaken.
And, with Dorian's current path being somewhat influenced by his intensity, relatively minor deviations right now in his strength/track may be more significant down the road when he's hunting for a weak spot in the ridge to exploit.
Really challenging forecast with a good number of potential solutions still remaining. Next few days are going to be quite interesting.
warneagle
Member
This imagery is from several hours ago but it’s still a really cool visulization.
- Admin
- #114
Imagine this scenario and what the storm surge would be like all the way up the Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts.
TornadoFan
Member
From the NHC's latest forecast discussion:
The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends.
The models have not been very
consistent from run to run in terms of the timing of the northward
turn, but there are more models now indicating that the turn could
occur near the east coast of Florida instead of well inland. Given
this latest change, the NHC forecast has been shifted just a little
to the right at this time, but users should be prepared for
additional adjustements to the left or right depending on future
model trends.
Gorgeous, but gosh, that's a lot of energy boiling around in there!
Am really hoping for the last-minute recurve out to sea.
Still, per 5 p.m. EDT Melbourne FD:
Equus
Member
Going full-on buzzsaw right now, eye perfectly symmetrical. Has looked like Hugo all day but might start looking more like Andrew for a bit overnight. Expect some ERCs in the coming days to broaden the wind field a bit though... meaning a larger trouble area for wind and surge wherever it winds up on the coast
warneagle
Member
Hurricane warnings are up in the northern Bahamas.
Equus
Member
Gorgeous stadium effect setting up. Shame this cycle might peak overnight (can't see it ramping up too long without an ERC) as it would make some phenomenal visible shots.
- Admin
- #120
Dangerous and beautiful!!