Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[TornadoFan]

There it is. Cat. 4

Hurricane Tammy Update Statement

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[akt1985]

Any chance Dorian hits the Carolinas instead? That might catch people off guard as all the media attention is on Florida.

 

[bjdeming]

From what I am seeing from the models, I shudder to think of a Cat 4 monster rolling along the Eastern Florida coast northwards all the way to the Carolinas... Riding the Gulf Stream and never losing much strength.

Scary.

If this track verifies, and looking at that northeast quadrant and the shape of the US coast, I'm wondering how much water is going to surge into northeast coastal Florida, parts of Georgia and, to a somewhat lesser degree perhaps, the Carolinas. The USGS, I just saw in the news, has set out a bunch of storm-tide sensors in that general area, but also some on the GoM side of the Florida peninsula. You never know.

Plus the wind -- at present, they've got it down to a Category 2 at around the Georgia border, I think.

If . . .

It's just too early to know what to expect yet, based on the NHC forecast cone and what some posters here have said about the ridging and steering currents.

One thing is for sure at this point -- folks in the northern Bahamas are in for a rough ride. Sigh.

 

[KoD]

Any chance Dorian hits the Carolinas instead? That might catch people off guard as all the media attention is on Florida.

Certainly a possibility. As Dorian tracks northward when the second trough rolls through and the ridging picks up it could stay off the coast and approach close to or into the Carolinas. I don't anticipate it recurving very much westward once that happens though, it should continue towards the northeast so timing that turn will mean everything. Unfortunately there's no way to know for certain. This could ride up the peninsula, hug the coast or remain off the coast entirely. If Dorian's stalls out over the Bahamas or even the FL coast, there will be some serious trouble.

 

[barcncpt44]

Seems like the models are taking Dorian more on a Eastern path. Turning north before it reaches the Florida mainland. Keep in mind, the worst parts of a hurricane is on that right side. Florida would still see storm surge and winds.

 

[TornadoFan]

Seems winds are continuing to pick up. Latest measurment is near 150 mph near the surface.

 

[KoD]

That's impressive for a surface reading. The northern eyewall dropsonde had a 165mph reading a little ways above the surface.

 

[TornadoFan]

The speed at which this storm is intensifying is terrifying.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The east coast of Florida is going to get steam rolled.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

Cat 5 status doesn't look far away.

 

[TornadoFan]

Latest NHC status is out:

...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER... ...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS...

 

[TornadoFan]

Seems the models keep trending east. Although I wouldn't let my guard down.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The EGR2 tropical model shows CAT 5 at 96hrs. EGR2 at 96 hrs along with the UKX2, HWFI, GFS consensus, and a lot of GFS ensembles landfall on the coast of Florida. Cape Canaveral up to Daytona Beach are the hot spot areas. They also show it tearing up Grand Bahama, and Little Abaco Island Sunday night.

 

[TornadoFan]

The latest cone seems to have the center off shore.

 

[gangstonc]

The east coast of Florida is going to get steam rolled.

I thought things were trending away from that

 

[Equus]

Look at the extremely slow movement for 24+ hours as it sits over Little Abaco and Grand Bahama. Going to be a Joaquin all over again, and can't entirely discount the possiblity of it being even stronger than Joaquin was.

 

[Evan]

There's so much uncertainty on Dorian's eventual track that it's definitely a time to focus on the overall cone the NHC uses versus being married to the actual forecast track. A somewhat minor 15-25 mile shift in Dorian's track over the next few days, or subtle changes in the ridge or trough, could have out-sized impacts on Dorian's eventual path. I feel zero confidence saying Florida will experience a landfall, and I also feel no confidence to say that Dorian is going out to sea.

The NHC is splitting the difference right now, and I honestly think that's largely because that's the safest and most logical solution at this point. To me, there's no clear indicators one way or the other, and the NHC are the best in the business. They know that. And they know they've got to have a forecast fit for public consumption. That's why they almost always just gradually adjust their track when models change (even with significant model changes).

We could see a continued trend to the NE which pushes Dorian OTS, or we might see the models start to trend back westward. There's very little skill in determining the path 4-5 days out when you have such a complex setup and (at times) divergent model solutions. I know one thing for certain...if anyone tells you they've got it all figured out...they absolutely do not.

 

[Evan]

I thought things were trending away from that

Per the models? Sure, that's the trend. But, that doesn't account for much if they simply flip back the other direction. We'll need a much more consistent model trend, and a better grasp on resolving the ridge, interaction with other features, etc before saying Dorian is ready to go towards more of an OTS solution.

Only thing I'd bet on is that Dorian will probably track somewhere inside the overall NHC forecast cone. And that's not anywhere near for sure either.

 

[Evan]

Look at the extremely slow movement for 24+ hours as it sits over Little Abaco and Grand Bahama. Going to be a Joaquin all over again, and can't entirely discount the possiblity of it being even stronger than Joaquin was.

It's going to be one of those storms I'm afraid. Intensity forecasts haven't been too bad so far, but I know you're quite aware of how difficult it is to forecast intensity when we get to higher end hurricanes. He looks amazing right now...that I know.

 

[TornadoFan]

Right now, it's anybody's guess as to what Dorian is going to do.