Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[KoD]

I've noticed as landfalling hurricanes weaken their wind fields expand. If Dorian were to weaken a bit over the next 24 hours would that mean the hurricane & tropical force winds would likely expand further from the eye and have a bigger effect if it glances the coast?

 

[Kory]

I've noticed as landfalling hurricanes weaken their wind fields expand. If Dorian were to weaken a bit over the next 24 hours would that mean the hurricane & tropical force winds would likely expand further from the eye and have a bigger effect if it glances the coast?

Yes, I suspect this will be the case. Despite this will likely not make landfall in Florida, their east coast will likely be subjected to hurricane conditions.

 

[Kory]

Looks like either the beginnings of an ERC or it has ingested a little bit of dry air this morning.

There is a hypothesis that when a hurricane is located in a high moisture gradient (I.e., lots of dry air surrounding it), it will tend to undergo eyewall replacement cycles as the convection remains concentric and new convective formation remains closer to the center.

In this case, I suspect we are seeing that.

 

[Kory]

Category 5 storm stalled on top of you. There’s only so much stress everything can take from those kinds of winds for hours upon hours.

 

[warneagle]

Whoa.

 

[TornadoFan]

Winds are down to 155 mph as of the latest update. So it's back to a category 4.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[Kory]

Winds are down to 155 mph as of the latest update. So it's back to a category 4.

Wind field will begin expanding.

 

[Kory]

Debarking? That is a violent hurricane.

 

[bjdeming]

Probably will see complete destruction of what is left of the infrastructure with the next eyewall coming in.

Word is just starting to reach The Tribune from Abaco islands and it's not good. Here's an example from their new update page this morning:

10.20am UPDATE: UNCONFIRMED reports from Green Turtle Cay, Abaco: Total devastation, people trapped in collapsed homes, the primary school shelter failed, roads impassable.

On their earlier update page there was a notice last night that Princess Margaret Hospital had urgent need for blood of all types.

Sigh.

Saw something on the page this morning that made me think -- we're so focused on used to having ground water that we don't think how vulnerable the fresh-water supply on these islands is to salt water pollution. And that's happening, at least on Abaco, per the Tribune, with all this flooding. So it's not just infrastructure; there is stuff going on underground, too,

 

[Kory]

Word is just starting to reach The Tribune from Abaco islands and it's not good. Here's an example from their new update page this morning:



On their earlier update page there was a notice last night that Princess Margaret Hospital had urgent need for blood of all types.

Sigh.

Saw something on the page this morning that made me think -- we're so focused on used to having ground water that we don't think how vulnerable the fresh-water supply on these islands is to salt water pollution. And that's happening, at least on Abaco, per the Tribune, with all this flooding. So it's not just infrastructure; there is stuff going on underground, too,

It's usually that back eyewall that levels everything. Complete wind change and with structures already partially compromised, it doesn't take much to finish it off.

 

[Equus]

Given the extremely slow motion over Grand Bahama last night, it would have been surreal to have been in the eye. One could have walked and kept pace with the eye, seeing the stars above and the lightning infused clouds bearing category five winds in every direction, and knowing that unavoidably every location in the eye would have been finished off by the back side of the eyewall. I can't imagine it's very often a high end category five equivalent storm stalls on a populated island for so long at extreme intensity...

 

[Kory]

I shutter at the long-range seasonal models continuing to show above-average activity through early October.

 

[Lori]

Those poor people, my heart just breaks for them. I feel so helpless knowing what is happening and other than prayers, there’s not a dang thing we can do to protect them!!

 

[Equus]

It's very uncomfortable to see that a storm that has stalled over a populated area for nearly a day has "weakened" to 155mph and think that's a major improvement. Wilma over the Yucatan and even Joaquin in nearly the same area come to mind but Dorian was so much stronger at landfall (tied with Wilma's peak in sustained winds even!) It's sobering to think of the images that will come when communication is better restored. Seeing nearly leveled homes and debarked trees before the back side of the eyewall even hit does not bode well.

 

[Richardjacks]

satellite trend is interesting...looks like eye wall is becoming deeper with colder cloud tops

 

[Equus]

Given the depth of hot water and the finishing of the eyewall replacement cycle, wouldn't be shocking to see it jump back up to Cat 5 one more time. Still has the eyewall on land, so not ideal... but not like 155mph isn't devastating enough.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Those poor people, my heart just breaks for them. I feel so helpless knowing what is happening and other than prayers, there’s not a dang thing we can do to protect them!!

prayers are the best thing Lori....

 

[Kory]

Given the depth of hot water and the finishing of the eyewall replacement cycle, wouldn't be shocking to see it jump back up to Cat 5 one more time. Still has the eyewall on land, so not ideal... but not like 155mph isn't devastating enough.

I think it pulled in a little dry air in the mid and upper levels.

 

[Equus]

I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more dry air impact then there has already been, though I guess a hurricane this strong kind of makes its own rules