Kory
Member
Another thing I'm seeing on some models is it ingesting some continental drier air as it begins lifting NNW/N which may act to weaken it.
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And still moving due WIt did slow down to 4 mph earlier, but now it's back up to 6 as of the 11 pm update.
It did slow down to 4 mph earlier, but now it's back up to 6 as of the 11 pm update.
There’s always a chance. It’s not the most likely scenario.Is there a chance it does not stall and continues trucking west?
It did slow down to 4 mph earlier, but now it's back up to 6 as of the 11 pm update.
Honestly, this has been pretty well forecasted. The only reason why we're talking 30 or 40 mile spread in guidance at day 2 is because of the angle of approach to the Florida coast could exponentially increase or decrease impacts. The situation gives an illusion of high uncertainty but all guidance (minus HWRF and HMON) keep this offshore and the spread, sans the two previously mentioned models, is actually below the NHC expected error at 48 hours.Something doesn't add up here. Either they took wrong measurements or an unorthodox change in forward motion. I feel as though there needs to be some kind of curveball that this storm throws out on us before it's all said and done, because I have never remembered seeing a forecast so difficult to predict. Even Matthew in 2016 to me was not as difficult as this one when you consider they were way off with this storm in terms of how it was supposed to move over Haiti, then Puerto Rico, and then missing the islands completely. Even the intensity they have been way off on.
230 MPH gust at Freeport airport. Odd, because the core hasn't reached it yet, has it?
It is hitting the wall.