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Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

Equus

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Freeport looks to still be in the western eyewall so northwesterly flow of strong category four intensity is no doubt shoving water past the airport and into the city at a scary rate
 

Equus

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Recon finding pressures near 940 and cat 3 surface winds; EWRC and dry air did a number on it apparently. Being technically over land surely didnt help either.
 

Evan

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Dorian seems to have become better organized again over the past few hours, he's now pushing some really cold cloud tops in his southern eyewall area, and Dvorak ADT reflects this improvement.

With the eye now back over water, I'm concerned that Dorian will quickly expell any dry air he ingested, continue to re-organize, and complete the EWRC he seems to have been undergoing. If he does that, the SSTs are definitely conducive to fairly significant re-strengthening. I believe the next 4-6 hours should give us some idea of whether or not this will occur.

I want to wait for another few Archer positioning passes to come in, but I'm pretty sure we just saw Dorian make some wobbles to the South and West. Will be interesting to see what that means as recently Dorian doesn't seem to be wanting to follow his forecasted track.
 
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Dorian seems to have become better organized again over the past few hours, he's now pushing some really cold cloud tops in his southern eyewall area, and Dvorak ADT reflects this improvement.

With the eye now back over water, I'm concerned that Dorian will quickly expell any dry air he ingested, continue to re-organize, and complete the EWRC he seems to have been undergoing. If he does that, the SSTs are definitely conducive to fairly significant re-strengthening. I believe the next 4-6 hours should give us some idea of whether or not this will occur.

I want to wait for another few Archer positioning passes to come in, but I'm pretty sure we just saw Dorian make some wobbles to the South and West. Will be interesting to see what that means as recently Dorian doesn't seem to be wanting to follow his forecasted track.


It’s just doing what it was doing last night as there were wobbles to the south and west. I do expect a move to get underway to the northwest tonight.
 

Kory

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Dorian was forecasted to clear Grand Bahama Island to the west, but has not and has consistently remained east of the forecast envelope as of the last 24-48 hours.. Good news for Florida and parts of the East Coast. Bad news for those poor folks.
 

Evan

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Dorian developing a much larger eye. I believe that could pull him west and finally clear Grand Bahama as was forecast.
 

Kory

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There is a graphic photo on the link provided....just a heads up. Summary of this post, there will be a rise in casualties. Likely a significant jump.

 
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