Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

[DaveFromGA]

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[warneagle]

No words.

 

[warneagle]

These numbers are just crazy.

 

[Lori]

Even Timmer is trying to contact him!!

 

[Jacob]

Radar presentation seems to be improving, with the inner eye almost gone and the larger outer eye possibly taking over. Satellite still shows a lot of dry air near the core though, so hopefully that'll continue to be a limiting factor.

 

[Lori]

On Facebook this is a public site, it gives updates but some of it is heartbreaking to read!!

 

[Jacob]

Radar presentation seems to be improving, with the inner eye almost gone and the larger outer eye possibly taking over. Satellite still shows a lot of dry air near the core though, so hopefully that'll continue to be a limiting factor.

Aaand 20 minutes later, it just looks like a ragged inner eye on radar with a lot of dry air issues.

 

[Kory]

Aaand 20 minutes later, it just looks like a ragged inner eye on radar with a lot of dry air issues.

Morning sounding out of Miami has a 5% relative humidity value at 250mb.

 

[DaveFromGA]

 

[Evan]

Aaand 20 minutes later, it just looks like a ragged inner eye on radar with a lot of dry air issues.

Large chunk of his northern side has been disrupted by a big slug of dry air. Probably the only thing that was keeping from re-organizing. Recon shows pressure is up another few mb. Very hopeful it takes him awhile to deal with the dry air and it causes further issues with his structure and attempts to re-organize.

 

[Lori]

 

[DaveFromGA]

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Great news he is alive, imagine he probably has some amazing video as it was happening.

 

[Evan]

Dorian has really gotten his act together over the past few hours. If he can finish just a bit more re-organization he may be able to tap into 12-24 hours of favorable conditions and intensify. I wouldn't expect considerable intensification, but I think he could get his pressure back down to the 940s.

 

[Kory]

I think storm structure will preclude any large scale strengthening. We may see some small pressure drops but the wind field is so expansive I don’t think winds will respond appropriately. It’s quite lopsided per microwave scans.

 

[Jacob]

I think storm structure will preclude any large scale strengthening. We may see some small pressure drops but the wind field is so expansive I don’t think winds will respond appropriately. It’s quite lopsided per microwave scans.

Agree to an extent, but it is trying to get better organized on satellite and you can see that a bit as well on the latest microwave scans.

 

[Evan]

I think storm structure will preclude any large scale strengthening. We may see some small pressure drops but the wind field is so expansive I don’t think winds will respond appropriately. It’s quite lopsided per microwave scans.

I agree with that, and that's why I was focused solely on pressure. Since he's gotten larger, a 10-12mb drop might only see the winds slightly improve or even remain about the same. But it will only take a small pressure fall to get back to 949 or below. Several tropical intensity models have forecasted this kind of improvement off-and-on and it seems to be very dependent upon Dorian getting himself re-organized. I think he's close to having done that, and if he continues to improve I believe modest pressure drops are quite possible.

 

[Jacob]

Deeper convection firing all around the eye now, as well as an increase in lightning in the eyewall. He's definitely strengthening at the moment, just not sure how high his ceiling is this go around.

 

[Kory]

Rather underwhelming wind reports from the coastline in Florida. Most are seeing very low end tropical storm gusts. Probably need some convection to get higher winds down to the surface.

 

[Kory]

The *majority* of Florida has dodged yet another bullet (I say this because Michael certainty wasn't a dodged bullet, but the relative disaster impacts to populated areas were quite limited compared to the density of Central and South Florida).

Coastal parts of the Carolinas will definitely be dealing with a solid hurricane as landfall somewhere on the Outer Banks looks very likely, but we should avoid a major hurricane landfall.