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Hurricane Hurricane Dorian (1 Viewer)


Kory

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I think the "broken up" eyewall look is an artifact of the radar not being able to pick up the low topped tropical convection. Although, I do think it has weakened some from dry air advection. Recon only found 85kt support for winds. That doesn't mean impact from surge will be any less, because the wind field has expanded. I.e., large fetch of water subjected to being pushed inland.
 

bwalk

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North Prattville, Al
I think the "broken up" eyewall look is an artifact of the radar not being able to pick up the low topped tropical convection. Although, I do think it has weakened some from dry air advection. Recon only found 85kt support for winds. That doesn't mean impact from surge will be any less, because the wind field has expanded. I.e., large fetch of water subjected to being pushed inland.
That is a good point about the radar limitations and low-topped convection. On every recent scan, the eastern eyewall looks different from the scan before it. It is all over the place in a relative kind of way. This would best be explained by a radar data issue as the eastern eyewall itself is not likely changing that much every 5 minutes or less.
 

Evan

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McCalla, AL
I think the "broken up" eyewall look is an artifact of the radar not being able to pick up the low topped tropical convection. Although, I do think it has weakened some from dry air advection. Recon only found 85kt support for winds. That doesn't mean impact from surge will be any less, because the wind field has expanded. I.e., large fetch of water subjected to being pushed inland.
Dorian has definitely weakened since his run back to major status last night. However, I'd also point out that in the past couple of hours he has re-fired a number of cold tops and started to wrap them around his inner core, and his structure looks better than it did 6-8 hours ago.

ADT shows that Dorian has probably stopped weakening for right now. In fact, he may be showing some very mild strengthening. Dorian is starting to have a very long history of doing this. I don't expect significant changes, but I could Dorian's pressure stabilize or drop 2-3mb. In the grand scheme of things, it simply allows him to continue to pile up the surge as you mentioned, and his fluctuations in strength are simply allowing him to grow larger and thus far avoid further truly significant weakening.

He is one of the more intriguing Hurricanes I've had the pleasure of watching.
 

Evan

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That is a good point about the radar limitations and low-topped convection. On every recent scan, the eastern eyewall looks different from the scan before it. It is all over the place in a relative kind of way. This would best be explained by a radar data issue as the eastern eyewall itself is not likely changing that much every 5 minutes or less.
Are you using GRlevel3 in the screenshot you posted?
 

Kory

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Dorian has definitely weakened since his run back to major status last night. However, I'd also point out that in the past couple of hours he has re-fired a number of cold tops and started to wrap them around his inner core, and his structure looks better than it did 6-8 hours ago.

ADT shows that Dorian has probably stopped weakening for right now. In fact, he may be showing some very mild strengthening. Dorian is starting to have a very long history of doing this. I don't expect significant changes, but I could Dorian's pressure stabilize or drop 2-3mb. In the grand scheme of things, it simply allows him to continue to pile up the surge as you mentioned, and his fluctuations in strength are simply allowing him to grow larger and thus far avoid further truly significant weakening.

He is one of the more intriguing Hurricanes I've had the pleasure of watching.
He is the only category 5 on record we've seen stall. I saw a graphic of how unprecedented it is for major hurricanes to stall due to their preference to find any bit of weakness and shoot the gap so to say.
 

KoD

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KLTX seems to have a reduction in reflectivity values compared to surrounding radars. Is this a chronic issue?
 

Evan

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McCalla, AL
KLTX seems to have a reduction in reflectivity values compared to surrounding radars. Is this a chronic issue?
I was wondering the same thing...I thought it might be due to heavy convection over the radar itself because I could see attenuation streaks emanating from the radar site all the way down to Dorian. Once I pulled up KLTX I could see that rain fade/attenuation due to rain wasn't the issue as the radar site itself didn't have much convection on top of it.

So, I did a little bit of research and found this and it makes total sense:

 
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Lori

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He is the only category 5 on record we've seen stall. I saw a graphic of how unprecedented it is for major hurricanes to stall due to their preference to find any bit of weakness and shoot the gap so to say.
I was wondering about that, I didn’t recall a major hurricane doing that!
 

Tyler Penland

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Pressure down to 958 millibars. This system is relentless at staying strong and strengthening.
Frying pan tower went through the eye and only reported 80MPH gusts. I think it's more of a pressure response from the system spreading out rather than seeing wind increases.
 

South AL Wx

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Not sure Dorian ever made landfall. I've yet to see a declaration from the NHC. Talk about completely paralleling the coast if so...
It finally did. From NHC:

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER CAPE HATTERAS...

Surface and radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Dorian
made landfall at 835 AM EDT (1235 UTC) over Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
 

Kory

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Tuscaloosa, Alabama
It finally did. From NHC:

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER CAPE HATTERAS...

Surface and radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Dorian
made landfall at 835 AM EDT (1235 UTC) over Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 mph (150 km/h) with
a minimum central pressure of 956 mb...28.23 inches.
That was about as close to a non-landfall I’ve seen. Nonetheless, 2nd landfalling U.S. Hurricane this year.

By the way, I haven’t yet to see a sustained hurricane wind report. Just gusts in excess of hurricane force. As often is the case, weakening system with broadening wind fields rarely live up to reported sustained winds. Surge however is enhanced.
 

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