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Hurricane Hurricane Dorian

TornadoFan said:
It did slow down to 4 mph earlier, but now it's back up to 6 as of the 11 pm update.
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Something doesn't add up here. Either they took wrong measurements or an unorthodox change in forward motion. I feel as though there needs to be some kind of curveball that this storm throws out on us before it's all said and done, because I have never remembered seeing a forecast so difficult to predict. Even Matthew in 2016 to me was not as difficult as this one when you consider they were way off with this storm in terms of how it was supposed to move over Haiti, then Puerto Rico, and then missing the islands completely. Even the intensity they have been way off on.
 
majorhurricane1703 said:
Something doesn't add up here. Either they took wrong measurements or an unorthodox change in forward motion. I feel as though there needs to be some kind of curveball that this storm throws out on us before it's all said and done, because I have never remembered seeing a forecast so difficult to predict. Even Matthew in 2016 to me was not as difficult as this one when you consider they were way off with this storm in terms of how it was supposed to move over Haiti, then Puerto Rico, and then missing the islands completely. Even the intensity they have been way off on.
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Honestly, this has been pretty well forecasted. The only reason why we're talking 30 or 40 mile spread in guidance at day 2 is because of the angle of approach to the Florida coast could exponentially increase or decrease impacts. The situation gives an illusion of high uncertainty but all guidance (minus HWRF and HMON) keep this offshore and the spread, sans the two previously mentioned models, is actually below the NHC expected error at 48 hours.

SHIPS actually did a great job at forecasting the rapid intensification giving it a >90% chance at that prior to the crazy strengthening yesterday. Majority of guidance has it weakening here on out.

05L_tracks_latest.png
 
DaveFromGA said:
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Levi Cowan goes into this model run in detail in his his video discussion tonight -- might as well include it here because the whole overview does show just how "iffy" the situation is right now (of note, the 11 p.m. NHC discussion does mention concentric eyewalls now):



As I understand it, it's not automatically good news if Dorian weakens a bit because its vortex might become shallower and make the storm more responsive to steering toward the west.

Any thoughts from more knowledgeable people here?

It did look to me as though NHC moved the center of the forecast cone a wee bit closer to the coast but still has Dorian offshore.
 
It would have to weaken significantly to follow the more shallow flow. This is why when the models had it hitting Hispaniola and remaining weaker, a lot of the solutions were Gulf bound. Check out the more shallow layer flow. We'd have a Gulf system in that case if it were much weaker.

The below image is not an accurate depiction of the current set up. Pure hypothetical.

wg8dlm1.GIF
 
TornadoFan said:
230 MPH gust at Freeport airport. Odd, because the core hasn't reached it yet, has it?
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Looks like that is a forecast, similar to a NWS TAF forecast, and not an actual observation. Notice that the forecast period is from 1300 UTC 02 September 2019 to 0000 UTC 03 September 2019.
 
Seems like Dorian is about 15-25 miles further west than it was forecast to be. It also seems like it was forecast to stay 45-55 miles offshore. Am I correct?
 
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