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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

bwalk

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Already had a wind gust to near 30mph at my house north of Birmingham. Gradient winds are no joke today.

This may be one of the windiest days of 2022 according to the mets & forecasted by the 10m Wind Gusts (mph) models (HRRR, NAM, etc)
These are non-storm-related winds - as Bama Ravens said, "gradient" winds.

One issue is if you add a SVR storm cell (w/ its own winds) on top of these gradient winds you can get some serious straight-line winds.
 

warneagle

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SPC MD 142 references a strong LLJ that should allow for somewhat greater destabilization than earlier forecast. I may be eating some crow on this one...
Combine that with the fact that the lower instability in earlier forecasts was based on what seems like unrealistically low temperature/moisture progs, and yeah, this is looking like a more significant event.
 

Jacob

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Yeah I think this is another case where the global models undercooked the thermos on a cool season event. 12z GFS progged 73/66 at JAN at 18z and it's currently 77/75 there.

Agreed it looks like they've undercooked it again, but I'm wondering if the 75 DP was a bad reading. I'm not seeing anything else quite that high across southern MS.
 

bwalk

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Reed Timmer says "Live tornado outbreak about to begin in Mississippi" per his YouTube channel.
He is always "ALL IN"!
(don't shoot the messenger - i.e., me)
 
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Extrapolating the 12Z NAM, the most favorable window for significant tornadoes will be 18-21Z (basically now through 3 PM CST), before low-level winds veer in the presence of the strongest instability (and it might be too quick with veering them).

This is trouble:
 

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JPWX

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We just had one isolated storm move through Smithville, MS early this morning but that's about it. North MS has been basically rain free and we've seen a few peeks of sunshine. Seeing sun now.
 

Equus

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Just some gusty showers here in Dallas overnight (and 42 with a very stiff cold wind right now) but definitely keeping my eye on stuff back home. Seems the line is breaking into discrete segments with backed surface winds. Lots of junky cells in the warm sector but with the extremely impressive parameters I don't think storm mode will be a major limiting factor. Interested to see what the rotating cells out ahead of the big semi-discrete linear ones can do here in a bit as they're already rotating
 

Austin Dawg

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We just had one isolated storm move through Smithville, MS early this morning but that's about it. North MS has been basically rain free and we've seen a few peeks of sunshine. Seeing sun now.
Thanks for letting me know. I still have family there and they're at work right now
 
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Just glanced over the radar track of that cell that was tornado warned and man, it was FLYING. Don't know if I've seen a storm advance further between radar scans other than on 12/15...even 12/10 wasn't this fast.
 
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