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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

Tennie

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I wonder if people are still getting things prepped for the storms later today. I myself went and got the porch covers on my house lowered down to protect the porch and everything on it.
 

weir003

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I thought we were supposed to get storms early in north alabama and then possibly a lull around noon before the main event. We haven't had anything to note so far with the main event still sometime away.
 

KevinH

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I thought we were supposed to get storms early in north alabama and then possibly a lull around noon before the main event. We haven't had anything to note so far with the main event still sometime away.
Nope.

From NWSBirmingham:
 
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I think the general quietude in here is due to the fact that this is such a conditional threat. SPC put up an enhanced risk because there *could* be a storm or two like the caliber of 2/3 today; or there could be not much of significance at all. Nothing to do really but wait and see what happens.
 

Taylor Campbell

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The table is set. We are about to get a significant severe weather event. MD is out and strong tornado potential is real.
 
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MichelleH

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I see on the Day 1 update, they shrank the 10% farther west. My county was in the 10% and now we're in the 5%. Of course, that means nothing, because tornadoes can't read.
 
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To me, Jackson misssissippi to Columbus Mississippi to Jasper alabama has the best threat. Models show a lot of rain for north miss and Tennessee so I see that being a huge limiting factor in that area
 

warneagle

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Yeah I think this is another case where the global models undercooked the thermos on a cool season event. 12z GFS progged 73/66 at JAN at 18z and it's currently 77/75 there. 12z NAM progged 71/66.

Mesoanalysis shows a pretty substantial reservoir of 1000+ CAPE in southwestern MS and if that gets transported far enough north with the wind fields we know will be in place...that's gonna be a problem.

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