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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

Mike S

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That is the one.

Timeline for North Alabama according to WAFF 48 and Brandon Spinner.

 

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Chris3024

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day2probotlk_1730_torn.gif

now with a hatched, also
 

Clancy

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Discussion from the new outlook.
...Arklatex region eastward across the Mid South and central Gulf
Coast region...
Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will be ongoing at the
start of the period from southeastern Kansas southward to eastern
Oklahoma and Arkansas and into northeastern Texas at the start of
the period, near and ahead of the advancing surface low/cold front.
Meanwhile, largely elevated, warm advection-induced convection will
extend northeastward across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and
vicinity. While meager CAPE is expected early in the period, strong
flow aloft suggests that locally damaging wind gusts will be a
possibility from the Arklatex region eastward toward the Mississippi
Delta area through mid afternoon.

With time, deepening of the low and associated strengthening of
low-level southerlies will allow persistent northward theta-e
advection to combine with modest/local diurnal warming, eventually
yielding evolution of mixed-layer CAPE up to about 500 J/kg. Across
Kentucky and areas north, a cool boundary layer should persist,
resulting in slightly stable conditions beneath evolving, modest
instability. However, this thermodynamic concern is partially
offset by stronger ascent aloft spreading across this region --
along with the deepening low expected to track along roughly the
Ohio River through late afternoon and into the evening. With this
ascent likely to maintain partially forced convection, and given
exceptionally strong/veering flow with height across this region,
potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes
remains a possibility.

Farther south, greater low-level theta-e advection suggests that the
boundary layer will become at least neutral, and therefore greater
certainty of surface- or near-surface-based storms exists -- both
near the advancing cold front, and also with associated warm
advection-driven bands of convection in the free warm sector. As
noted above, very strong shear -- with south-southwesterly 850 mb
winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at
70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and
attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly
locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes. As such, an upgrade to

enhanced risk is being introduced, centered across the Tennessee
Valley area from late afternoon through the evening hours.
 

Kragg

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All of the models I’ve checked this afternoon are more bullish on CAPE numbers, pushing them a lot closer to 1000 j/kg than they were yesterday.

On a slight side note this morning on NBC13 tv broadcast they showed a CAPE model, but had it labeled “Storm Fuel” I don’t know how long they’ve been doing that, but it’s the first time I’ve seen it.
 

warneagle

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Really surprised they went with an ENH upgrade and 10% sigtor given the relatively modest thermodynamics. Obviously if anything can get going and stay supercellular it could be a big problem given the strength of the wind fields, but that big of an ENH area for a pretty conditional threat seems...awfully aggressive to me. That said, the models have had a tendency recently to underforecast the thermodynamics (10 December being a particularly egregious example), so maybe they're factoring that in? Idk, they're the experts and I'm a random idiot on the internet, so I'll trust them on it.
 

Mike S

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If we start seeing more of these we may should start a separate thread, but some north Alabama school systems are closing early on Thursday, and one will be virtual all day.



Franklin County Schools (AL)
Closing Early at 12:30PM ThursdayPublic School

Lauderdale County Schools
Virtual Learning ThursdayPublic School

Muscle Shoals City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM on 2022-02-17Public School

Russellville City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM ThursdayPublic School

Tuscumbia City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM on 2022-02-17Public School
 

Flyboy70

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If we start seeing more of these we may should start a separate thread, but some north Alabama school systems are closing early on Thursday, and one will be virtual all day.



Franklin County Schools (AL)
Closing Early at 12:30PM ThursdayPublic School

Lauderdale County Schools
Virtual Learning ThursdayPublic School

Muscle Shoals City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM on 2022-02-17Public School

Russellville City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM ThursdayPublic School

Tuscumbia City Schools
Early Dismissal at 1:00PM on 2022-02-17Public School
Florence City Schools dismissing at 11:30
 

Mike S

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Several additional closings, so I went ahead and started a separate thread.

 

StormStalker

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Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 11am. Some of the storms could be severe. High near 73. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 20 mph increasing to 25 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Impressive wind forecast outside the severe weather threat. Wouldn't be suprised to see some sporadic power outages from trees/limbs getting blown around.
 

Kragg

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HRRR is looking less good for MS this evening. Dew points in mid 60’s CAPE close to 1,000 j/kg and the STP’s making the hatched area on the day 2 forecast make more sense. For my still learning low level amateur self.
 

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