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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

KevinH

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Reed went live and started using the “O” word for Thursday. Not a guarantee but just adds to how much attention this week warrants, especially for MS/AL/TN.

 
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Reed went live and started using the “O” word for Thursday. Not a guarantee but just adds to how much attention this week warrants, especially for MS/AL/TN.



Eh, it's Reed.

Unstable warm sector looks pretty narrow overnight Wednesday and through the day Thursday on GFS/NAM with not great lapse rates, despite some favorable-looking hodographs. I'd be hesitant to call this an outbreak at this time, but certainly the potential exists for a rogue spinner or two not unlike 2/3.
 

KevinH

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Eh, it's Reed.

Unstable warm sector looks pretty narrow overnight Wednesday and through the day Thursday on GFS/NAM with not great lapse rates, despite some favorable-looking hodographs. I'd be hesitant to call this an outbreak at this time, but certainly the potential exists for a rogue spinner or two not unlike 2/3.
Yeah, still a few days away, BUT I wanted to post it just in case other people would want to watch.

Data on Wednesday will be more telling and the models could still trend downward between now and then.
 

KevinH

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Clarification - 3am is a terrible time from a human awareness/alertness standpoint. :)
I understand.

I said damn the Gulf of Mexico bc it can be a source of overnight “fuel” for storms. I am not sure how much that will be the case this week (if at all), but the GOF is the first thing that comes to mind when I hear about overnight tornadoes.
 

MattW

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Woah, hold on, that's showing the model run maximum, that's not showing what's going on at 3am CST, it's showing what has happened over the previous 105 hours UNTIL 3am CST 2/17/22.
 

Tennie

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Woah, hold on, that's showing the model run maximum, that's not showing what's going on at 3am CST, it's showing what has happened over the previous 105 hours UNTIL 3am CST 2/17/22.

Well, in that case, someone ought to find and share what the model is actually showing as going on around that time, for comparitive purposes!
 

Flyboy70

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It looks like we might have some 'nader juice' available during the afternoon Thursday in MS and western TN.

That's close enough to me to get a chase in Thursday! Waiting to see if there's a possibility for any discrete stuff before the main event. Not looking likely though.
 

bwalk

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Woah, hold on, that's showing the model run maximum, that's not showing what's going on at 3am CST, it's showing what has happened over the previous 105 hours UNTIL 3am CST 2/17/22.

Thanks for the clarification. I am trying to understand how any data going back 105 hours would be helpful with general close range forecasting (~ 12 hours or less)? Meaning: I can't see how data for updrafts 90 hours ago in Texas has any significant bearing on forecasted updrafts in Alabama 90 hours later? I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.

So - the terminology "run-to-hour Maximum" is how to identify a summary (ie, maximum) of model data for a certain range of time?
I did a google search for "weather model 'run to hour maximum'" and did not find anything that helped explain.
 
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Thanks for the clarification. I am trying to understand how any data going back 105 hours would be helpful with general close range forecasting (~ 12 hours or less)? Meaning: I can't see how data for updrafts 90 hours ago in Texas has any significant bearing on forecasted updrafts in Alabama 90 hours later? I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.

So - the terminology "run-to-hour Maximum" is how to identify a summary (ie, maximum) of model data for a certain range of time?
I did a google search for "weather model 'run to hour maximum'" and did not find anything that helped explain.

I believe your use of this product was fine. I oftentimes look at this product when analyzing the potential impact of a weather event. It allows you the ability to see the entirety of the forecasted helicity streaks. The only time it would be misleading is, if there were multiple discrete storm periods within the same model run (that happened earlier in the run). So if your looking at this product at hour 120 of the model run, and there were storms that occurred at hour 1, then days fo by and another episode starting at hour 100. So your run max at 120 would look worse because it would also include the storms from hour 1.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Kragg

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Thanks for the clarification. I am trying to understand how any data going back 105 hours would be helpful with general close range forecasting (~ 12 hours or less)? Meaning: I can't see how data for updrafts 90 hours ago in Texas has any significant bearing on forecasted updrafts in Alabama 90 hours later? I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.

So - the terminology "run-to-hour Maximum" is how to identify a summary (ie, maximum) of model data for a certain range of time?
I did a google search for "weather model 'run to hour maximum'" and did not find anything that helped explain.
I think it’s easier to use if you watch the full forecast model run, rather than just looking at the end of the forecast.

If you go to the link that KevinH posted on this page it will take you to the animated model page. That’s what I like to look at because it better shows you the timing of the storm system. You can pause the animation during any point of the playback and check the upper right corner for the forecast time stamp. So when It starts producing updraft helicity tracks in Alabama hit pause and you can check to see what time it is forecasting conditions to be the most conductive to producing rotating updrafts in AL.

So these are the 3 screenshots showing the progress of the system from 3pm in the first to 9pm in the last image.
 

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Guidance has held pretty steady on the idea that this event will feature a fairly narrow portion of the warm sector with even (barely) adequate instability (the area of AL with extremely favorable-looking hodographs/veering winds with height has nil CAPE at 00Z Friday as depicted on the latest NAM run, and the low-level winds veer with time reducing SRH as the instability axis moves in with time). Even so, Dixie has a way of overachieving especially in a La Nina pattern so it'll be another "Don't panic, but don't let your guard down either" kind of day.
 

Mike S

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I can't post it at the moment but the latest Day 2 has expanded east to include all of North Alabama and most of Tennessee from about Crossville west.
 
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