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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

JayF

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I am going to go ahead and Sticky this and label it. @KevinH please go ahead and add the images for D6 and D7
 
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Today's 12Z GFS still has a potent system but looks a little less favorable, at least strictly in terms of significant tornado potential. The surface cyclone has raced off to the northeast by peak heating Thursday, veering winds across that part of the warm sector where the richest moisture resides (per the model output). However, this could be one of those Dixie cool season setups where timing doesn't really matter. In addition, with 50s dewpoints all the way north to Lake Erie in mid-February, a huge, forced squall line with damaging winds is another possible outcome. Things will continue to bounce around a lot over the next six days, but interesting times ahead...

Paging @Fred Gossage and @andyhb ...
 
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Today's 12Z GFS still has a potent system but looks a little less favorable, at least strictly in terms of significant tornado potential. The surface cyclone has raced off to the northeast by peak heating Thursday, veering winds across that part of the warm sector where the richest moisture resides (per the model output). However, this could be one of those Dixie cool season setups where timing doesn't really matter. In addition, with 50s dewpoints all the way north to Lake Erie in mid-February, a huge, forced squall line with damaging winds is another possible outcome. Things will continue to bounce around a lot over the next six days, but interesting times ahead...

Paging @Fred Gossage and @andyhb ...
Slp also deepens as move off ne , not really seeing any lesser threat here . Be honest. At this time
 

WarmSector

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This is speculation at this point, but I don’t think it would take much to get a secondary area of low pressure to form as the primary low moves towards Illinois on the 12z GFS. There is a secondary shortwave on the 500mb charts. It gets left behind at this point, but that position could change on future runs. It’s probably not the most likely scenario, but it’s something to watch as this gets closer.
 

Clancy

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FFC AFD mentions potential for strong storms. They're usually pretty slow to discuss severe potential.
Precipitation chances will increase from northwest to southeast
early Thursday morning as the broad region of forcing ahead of the
cold front moves into the area. PoPs become categorical across
north Georgia during the daytime hours on Thursday, spreading into
central Georgia during the overnight hours and into Friday
morning. It is possible that the strong synoptic-scale forcing
moving into the warm sector of this well-developed system could
create a favorable environment for strong thunderstorms on
Thursday into Friday.
At this time, it is still too early to
determine the details of the severity and impacts of thunderstorms
as the front approaches and moves through the area, but this will
need to be monitored in the coming days. Rainfall totals in
association with this system are forecast to be mainly 1-1.5
inches in central Georgia and 1.5-2.5 inches in north Georgia,
although locally higher amounts may be possible where stronger
storms develop.
 

Equus

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Gonna be out of town in Texas for this one tragically, hopefully the power stays on or the gecko and tropical houseplants will be rather less than happy
 

Taylor Campbell

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Still looking at an unkindly setup on the GFS and EURO runs. The mid-level shortwave ejection, mid-level lapse rate plum, surface low track, and many other things look checked for this to be felt in a big way. I suspect higher resolution models will look unruly bad as we get within range.
 
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