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Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
tennessee storm chaser
Member
Were is Andy and gossage hiding at lately ? Lol
bwalk
Member
This may be one of the windiest days of 2022 according to the mets & forecasted by the 10m Wind Gusts (mph) models (HRRR, NAM, etc)
These are non-storm-related winds - as Bama Ravens said, "gradient" winds.
One issue is if you add a SVR storm cell (w/ its own winds) on top of these gradient winds you can get some serious straight-line winds.
Clancy
Member
Windy, warm and sunny in the ATL metro.
CheeselandSkies
Member
SPC MD 142 references a strong LLJ that should allow for somewhat greater destabilization than earlier forecast. I may be eating some crow on this one...
CheeselandSkies
Member
LOL, I even tried to solicit their opinions when this thread was started last Friday.
warneagle
Member
Combine that with the fact that the lower instability in earlier forecasts was based on what seems like unrealistically low temperature/moisture progs, and yeah, this is looking like a more significant event.
Agreed it looks like they've undercooked it again, but I'm wondering if the 75 DP was a bad reading. I'm not seeing anything else quite that high across southern MS.
bwalk
Member
Reed Timmer says "Live tornado outbreak about to begin in Mississippi" per his YouTube channel.
He is always "ALL IN"!
(don't shoot the messenger - i.e., me)
He is always "ALL IN"!
(don't shoot the messenger - i.e., me)
MichelleH
Member
MattPetrulli
Member
Need to watch the cell west of Summit, MS. Already has signs of weak rotation and is somewhat isolated.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Extrapolating the 12Z NAM, the most favorable window for significant tornadoes will be 18-21Z (basically now through 3 PM CST), before low-level winds veer in the presence of the strongest instability (and it might be too quick with veering them).
This is trouble:
This is trouble:
Attachments
JPWX
Member
We just had one isolated storm move through Smithville, MS early this morning but that's about it. North MS has been basically rain free and we've seen a few peeks of sunshine. Seeing sun now.
JPWX
Member
Current temperature is 70. DP is 63 with a South wind at 23mph.
Jetstream
Member
First tornado warning.... Holmes, Humphreys, and Yazoo counties Misissippi
Equus
Member
Just some gusty showers here in Dallas overnight (and 42 with a very stiff cold wind right now) but definitely keeping my eye on stuff back home. Seems the line is breaking into discrete segments with backed surface winds. Lots of junky cells in the warm sector but with the extremely impressive parameters I don't think storm mode will be a major limiting factor. Interested to see what the rotating cells out ahead of the big semi-discrete linear ones can do here in a bit as they're already rotating
Thanks for letting me know. I still have family there and they're at work right now
CheeselandSkies
Member
Just glanced over the radar track of that cell that was tornado warned and man, it was FLYING. Don't know if I've seen a storm advance further between radar scans other than on 12/15...even 12/10 wasn't this fast.