Severe WX February 16-17th, 2022 Severe Threat

[MichelleH]

Awful quiet for an ENH day in Dixie Alley. 64F/TD 56F at my location. Quite sticky out there for a February morning.

It's quiet because it's not happening until this afternoon and evening.

 

[TCLwx]

It's quiet because it's not happening until this afternoon and evening.

I meant this forum is quiet—sorry. Usually a little more chatter.

 

[HazardousWx]

I meant this forum is quiet—sorry. Usually a little more chatter.

You're right. There is normally a lot of excitement for one of these events.

 

[Tennie]

I wonder if people are still getting things prepped for the storms later today. I myself went and got the porch covers on my house lowered down to protect the porch and everything on it.

 

[KevinH]

I meant this forum is quiet—sorry. Usually a little more chatter.

Comments should pick up, when (if?) “THINGS” pick up later today.

 

[weir003]

I thought we were supposed to get storms early in north alabama and then possibly a lull around noon before the main event. We haven't had anything to note so far with the main event still sometime away.

 

[KevinH]

I thought we were supposed to get storms early in north alabama and then possibly a lull around noon before the main event. We haven't had anything to note so far with the main event still sometime away.

Nope.

From NWSBirmingham:

 

[CheeselandSkies]

I think the general quietude in here is due to the fact that this is such a conditional threat. SPC put up an enhanced risk because there *could* be a storm or two like the caliber of 2/3 today; or there could be not much of significance at all. Nothing to do really but wait and see what happens.

 

[Bama Ravens]

Already had a wind gust to near 30mph at my house north of Birmingham. Gradient winds are no joke today.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 142

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Taylor Campbell]

The table is set. We are about to get a significant severe weather event. MD is out and strong tornado potential is real.

 

[Richardjacks]

Yes, I think something significant is about to unfold over Miss. Alot of questions as to how far east though into Alabama, and i do think west Alabama could see a significant tornado as well, also a little more concerned over the i65 corridor than I was earlier.

 

[MichelleH]

I see on the Day 1 update, they shrank the 10% farther west. My county was in the 10% and now we're in the 5%. Of course, that means nothing, because tornadoes can't read.

 

[Richardjacks]

I see on the Day 1 update, they shrank the 10% farther west. My county was in the 10% and now we're in the 5%. Of course, that means nothing, because tornadoes can't read.

Well my concern further east toward i65 is more for straight line winds, not as much tornadoes

 

[Clancy]

Tornado Watch out.

 

[Mr. Clark]

 

[Austin Dawg]

Why does it always have to be right through Monroe County Mississippi? The dewpoints are surging

 

[Justin Hindman Hindy]

To me, Jackson misssissippi to Columbus Mississippi to Jasper alabama has the best threat. Models show a lot of rain for north miss and Tennessee so I see that being a huge limiting factor in that area

 

[warneagle]

Yeah I think this is another case where the global models undercooked the thermos on a cool season event. 12z GFS progged 73/66 at JAN at 18z and it's currently 77/75 there. 12z NAM progged 71/66.

Mesoanalysis shows a pretty substantial reservoir of 1000+ CAPE in southwestern MS and if that gets transported far enough north with the wind fields we know will be in place...that's gonna be a problem.

 

[pritchlaw]

Warrior, Alabama at about 11:15 am.