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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

So 18z Hurricane Model runs...

HAFS-B 961 mb into Mexico Beach
HMON 940 mb just north of Tampa
HAFS-A 953 mb between Destin and Panama City
HWRF 930 mb coming in just south of Tallahassee

All devastating scenarios and shows the uncertainty still remaining in track and intensity.
 
Not great looks from the HAFS models, HMON and HWRF. Aside from possible major coastal impacts, this could also be a big flooding issue across portions of Alabama and Georgia, in addition to a tornado threat. Still too early to speak with confidence, but it definitely doesn't bode well.
1727054535259.png1727054549345.png1727054560550.png1727054572570.png
 
97L is now at 70/90 odds and beginning to organize. Modelling to be taken with a grain of salt, but 00Z suite looked, well, bad.
1. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of
organization with a broad area of low pressure located over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form over the next couple of days
as the system moves northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where additional
development is possible.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also closely monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Click to expand...
 
KevinH said:
You mean FL landfall? lol
Click to expand...
Well of course. But at that latitude point. I used that as as an easier reference to find than a particular spot in FL as I don't know all those coastal town names. About the same as someone listing their location as "W Central Georgia" which could be near a lot of different towns.

Sheesh.
 
06Z ensemble guidance. A track like these would bring the front right quadrant over Western GA and northeastern Alabama, with heavy rain and risk for tornadoes.
20240923_070433.png
 
Okay, this is officially scary. ALL of the hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HMON, and HWRF) are trending towards Cat 4+ with pressures in the 920s or lower. They're still running, so I'm not sure what the landfall intensities are yet, but that all of them are predicting this is quite alarming.

EDIT: I'll post the landfall stats as they come in:

HAFS-B 917 mb 145-ish mph just south of Tallahassee
HAFS-A 925 mb 145-ish mph just south of Tallahassee
HMON 930 mb 125-ish mph near Steinhatchee in the Big Bend
HWRF 932 mb 115-ish mph near Steinhatchee in the Big Bend
 
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Sawmaster said:
Well of course. But at that latitude point. I used that as as an easier reference to find than a particular spot in FL as I don't know all those coastal town names. About the same as someone listing their location as "W Central Georgia" which could be near a lot of different towns.

Sheesh.
Click to expand...
I only say that bc the AL/GA border does not touch the GOF so it could confuse people :) just trying to help avoid confusion :cool:
 
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