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Hurricane Category 4 Hurricane Helene

KevinH said:
Crap.. I am supposed to go to the FL coast this weekend.
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Where to? East Coast will be a different story than anywhere along the GOM.
 
Me and one of my close friends/meteorologist in Beaumont Texas have been talking about how this disturbance could be a combination track of Opal 1995 and Michael 2018. I had not even considered Opal until another friend brought it to my attention on Friday.
 
JPWX said:
Me and one of my close friends/meteorologist in Beaumont Texas have been talking about how this disturbance could be a combination track of Opal 1995 and Michael 2018. I had not even considered Opal until another friend brought it to my attention on Friday.
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Yeah, Opal and Michael are the two analogs I've been talking about in daily updates on my Facebook page to my followers. Most of my followers are in the Florida Panhandle or Southeast AL/southwest GA (the area I grew up), so many of them understand and remember these storms. The patterns between them are very strong.
 
wx_guy said:
For what it's worth -- the HurricaneVision AI has been hit or miss this season but did well with Beryl and Debby in the endgame. Here it is predicting a Cat 4 in the Gulf.



View attachment 30049
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Taking that at face value, that would put more of Pensacola at risk than the further east threat the models are suggesting. Until we actually get a storm, we can only guess. However, NWS Jackson afternoon discussion as well as WPC Day 5 Flash Flood Risk seem to believe at least Eastern MS sees some tropical input from this.
 
One of my favorite X'ers is Tomer Burg (he co-developed tropycal Python package I use a lot). He has an awesome site (http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/interactive.php?storm=AL972024) that stacks together all members of the Euro ensemble, the American ensemble, the Canadian ensemble, and the UK ensemble onto one big super plot. This gives you a good idea of the possible spread right now. This particular pic I took at 108 hours (Thursday evening) terminus.







1727040886995.png
 
wx_guy said:
One of my favorite X'ers is Tomer Burg (he co-developed tropycal Python package I use a lot). He has an awesome site (http://arctic.som.ou.edu/tburg/products/realtime/tropical/interactive.php?storm=AL972024) that stacks together all members of the Euro ensemble, the American ensemble, the Canadian ensemble, and the UK ensemble onto one big super plot. This gives you a good idea of the possible spread right now. This particular pic I took at 108 hours (Thursday evening) terminus.







View attachment 30050
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His website is the only site I could find that had the total ACE by storm going back to 2000. It's come in handy with the Atlantic and now Eastern Pacific PowerPoints I've done up. Great site overall. Definitely been using his site more this season.
 
My local fave Chris Justis has another vid out predicting a more eastward landfall on the GA/ AL state line. He's also calling for large RI Wednesday.
 
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